By that I mean I've added real hard math while keeping the ability to adjust for local factors and "gut" feelings.
The first thing you may notice is the colour change. This was so that "lock" and "leading" ridings can be shown in different shades. Otherwise the blues and orange-reds tend to blend together.
The QS is shown in Green in Franco Montreal, while the CAQ is shown in Green everywhere else - excepting the one riding where an Independent has a real chance.
Originally the number of lightly shaded ridings was much higher, but I used math to scale it down. I also adjusted the bars at the bottom to show the full range. The CAQ for example is, according to this prediction, "ahead" in 5 of it's possibile (lightly shaded) ridings, and "behind" in 3. The light Green section in the CAQ bar is thus 8 bars long, and not the 5 you'd otherwise expect. This shows the full range of possibilities.
The Liberals effectively have a "strong minority" locked up. With the addition of the Independent, a former PLQ MNA, the PLQ can command enough support that even the smallest party - in this case the QS - can team up with it for a majority vote in the assembly. With the chances that the PLQ can find the 2 seats for an official majority they need among the possible ridings, the PLQ effectively has already won the election.
I'll narrow the selection down further. Unless the next poll has parties outside their new found range*, I will not be adding more light-shaded ridings, but rather, reducing the number of them.