Thursday, April 3, 2014

Quebec in the closing days

This is my current prediction, with projection elements.

By that I mean I've added real hard math while keeping the ability to adjust for local factors and "gut" feelings.

The first thing you may notice is the colour change. This was so that "lock" and "leading" ridings can be shown in different shades. Otherwise the blues and orange-reds tend to blend together.

The QS is shown in Green in Franco Montreal, while the CAQ is shown in Green everywhere else - excepting the one riding where an Independent has a real chance.

Originally the number of lightly shaded ridings was much higher, but I used math to scale it down. I also adjusted the bars at the bottom to show the full range. The CAQ for example is, according to this prediction, "ahead" in 5 of it's possibile (lightly shaded) ridings, and "behind" in 3. The light Green section in the CAQ bar is thus 8 bars long, and not the 5 you'd otherwise expect. This shows the full range of possibilities.

The Liberals effectively have a "strong minority" locked up. With the addition of the Independent, a former PLQ MNA, the PLQ can command enough support that even the smallest party - in this case the QS - can team up with it for a majority vote in the assembly. With the chances that the PLQ can find the 2 seats for an official majority they need among the possible ridings, the PLQ effectively has already won the election.

I'll narrow the selection down further. Unless the next poll has parties outside their new found range*, I will not be adding more light-shaded ridings, but rather, reducing the number of them.

PLQ 37-45
PQ 26-31
CAQ 17-22
QS 7-10

1 comment:

  1. For anyone wondering...

    Where the Math is not decisive, and/or my gut tells me what the math does not...

    Taschereau - in Quebec City.
    My gut says PQ lock but the math says PLQ win.

    Legault (CAQ leader) is running against Pierre Paquette, a very strong former BQ MP. My gut says this will be a close race. I've completely ignored the math in this riding.

    Saint Jerome
    Another riding where I've ignored the math. PKP is very controversial and historically, star candidates who strike controversy tend to be unable to win their seats; thus my gut tells me the CAQ is ahead

    The final riding where I just outright ignore the math. A sitting CAQ member, one of it's founding members, a former PQer, was kicked out of the party due to a scandal and is quitting. Remains to be seen if the CAQ can retain it's holding.

    Groulx and Montarville, outside of Montreal
    The math says the PQ should win here handily, but local polls show the CAQ not doing as poorly in the region as one might expect. My gut also tells me that it is more likely the CAQ loses seats to the Liberals than to the PQ.

    Nicolet, Drummond, and Arthabaska
    All of these, according to the math, are PLQ victories, but my gut says the CAQ may well be able to hold on despite PLQ strength.

    La Piniere
    I've already talked about the Independent previously; math thus does not help us here.

    Lastly a note on Saint Marie, a QS lock taken from the PQ. While my gut tells me that the PQ should be able to present a fight, the math tells me this will be a very large win for the QS. When the math is that insistent, I have trouble disagreeing. Following the math in these cases is what lead me to be the first to call for 10 CPC seats in Quebec in 2006, a virtual sweep of Northern Ontario by the NDP in 2008, and the NDP's amazing rise in Quebec in 2011. However, it should be noted, in 2011 the math insisted the NDP would win Westmount with an overwhelming margin. Marc Garneau, current Liberal MP for the riding might have a thing or two to say about that.