Sunday, April 6, 2014

Quebec Election, how crazy could it get?

As I tried to hint at, in my post 2nd debate posting, who won the debate (IE Couillard or Marois) may not have told us the full story (cause Legault did)

Legault really did managed to win both debate, in retrospect, and saved his party from extinction.

Three things have happened since then.

1 - The Liberals have slightly increased their standing. This is one of the primary news stories, with the media preparing us for a Liberal majority.

2 - The CAQ has been boosted. This has also appeared in the news, with some suggesting a CAQ strong showing could throw everything into doubt.

3 - The PQ has plunged like a rock. This is, in reality, and in truth, the single most major and huge news story to come out this election. As usual, the media will wait until after to see it in "retrospect".

I have to stop here and admit some personal bias. While I always try to be as non-partisan as possible; and while I think I can do that with the Liberals, Tories, NDP, and Greens (hell, I've been a member of all 4) I have trouble being unbiased when it comes to the Bloc and the PQ. I consider the charter nothing less than racism. When Legault asked Couillard in the first debate if he thinks it is okay for a policewoman to wear a hijab, I was upset. Upset that Couillard did not say "Yes, and anyone who says no is a disgusting racist."

For that reason the whole idea of the PQ being decimated fills me with glee. I really and honestly could care less if the Liberals win, the CAQ wins, or even the QS wins. The QS, which is much less about the charter and much more about radical left-wing change, do not bother me nearly as much. The PQ, however, is a party I'd love to see defeated, permanently.

With that in mind, I've used the real math, and extended the trends.

I also want to stop and explain what I mean by extending trends. On February 16th, the PQ was at 40% in the polls. According to the fresh-off-the-press Forum poll, they are now at 24%. "Trendlines" means that I am presuming the PQ will be, at election time, at 23% or less. In particular, likely a point or two even less.

With that in mind I present to you the possible but implausible, PQ nightmare scenario:

I rate this as "possible but implausible". Remember though, I said the same about the BC Liberals. In that case I over-estimated the size of Liberal mistakes and under-estimated the NDP ones. Putting more emphasis on Marois' failings (I feel I've already put enough, if not too much) and more on Legault's success (again, I feel I've already put too much) would certainly push things more towards this nightmare scenario.

I've also prepared some ridings to watch. You can use it to set up your riding tracker at the CBC quebec votes website. Check out the 2012 map (I suggest expanding it) to see how it all works. Remember though this map will say 2014 in the address bar, not 2012! (hint hint)

All in all the election has two things that will make it exciting. First, it's still open enough that dozens of seats could fall differently from the projections. Secondly, the current projections all show a major change. Thus no matter what, the election will be quite the joy!

This will be my last post on the Quebec Election until the polls close (with a possible "alright lets get ready to watch the crap out of this election" post) after which I'll make a few posts as the results roll in.


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