Thursday, April 24, 2014

Pivot

This week serves as a pivot point for politics around the world.

Ontario
The NDP has put out their demands, they want an increase in corporate taxes. Should the government survive though this spring, there is a good chance we may hobble all the way to 2015. The Liberals will need to decide.
1 - Say no and go into an election.
2 - Say yes and increase taxes to get budget though.

Alberta
The provincial PC Party seems to be getting into election mode, and not just leadership election. I'm unsure why; this seems beyond all rationality and logic, but there seems to be an undercurrent among some that a snap election under a new premier would be the way to go. I think this is foolish.

Newfoundland
Frank Coleman has all but been acclaimed as "premier-elect" and leader of the PC Party. The problem is Coleman does not seem like any kind of "leader" at all, seeming to want to be hand-held though this entire process. The Newfoundland PC Party could self destruct if things don't turn around.

India
The Indian elections are still ongoing with today being one of the larger days for voting. In particular, opinions for and against Modi; the leader in the race, are starting to solidify and polarize the race.

Europe
We are about a month out from an europe-wide election, and just as I am preparing for a blog post, it seems Europe has suddenly awakened to the election; with the number of news stories this week almost double that from last (that I can find) without any significant uptick in content.

Elsewhere
Iraq is entering it's final week of it's campaign, and South Africa's election is almost a fortnight away.


At the end of May, we may find each of the above has a new story to tell.

3 comments:

  1. I should also note the title ties in to my next post (which will be about the Federal election of 2015)

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  2. The Ontario NDP is in trouble. 3 recent polls all had the Dippers in the low 20's. Wynne would be foolish to acquiesce to their blackmail since, the blame for raising taxes would be placed on her and she will find herself in the exact same position in 6 months time when, once again the NDP will demand she raise taxes or demand something equally as foolish. The polls indicate it is a two way race between the Tories and Liberals I suspect an election campaign would further drive down NDP numbers. By waiting Liberal numbers may improve but, they may not, at the moment they have a 50/50 chance at winning re-election-a remarkable good result for an 11 year old government.

    This minority Parliament has already lasted considerably longer than the average. Wynne needs a mandate if she wants to make substantial policy changes. More importantly, it is fundamentally undemoctratic and illegitimate for her to rule Ontario without consent by the people-premiers have the power of an absolute monarch therefore, it is fundamental they be approved by the people otherwise they are little more than tyrants. Thus far she had not been hurt by her unwillingness to face election but, as time moves on the perception she is "clinging to power" will increase, when people believe a government is "clinging to power" they will turf them in a landslide-that would be bad news for both the Liberals and the NDP.

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    Replies
    1. The polls agree with you. I've looked deeper into the polls and the NDP really seems to be in trouble.

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