Saturday, April 5, 2014

Final Quebec Prediction, PQ slaughter

Marois may lose her own seat.

The math alone tells me that Marois is going to find herself in a very close battle in her own seat. At the ratio factors shown, she would win with 13,388 votes over the PLQ candidate at 12,578.

Part of the benefit of a prediction over an outright projection, is that I can correct for trends. The PQ is trending down, and fast. In addition, historically, Quebec has not been friendly towards it's leaders. 

In addition, there is some (strong) feeling that Marois is to blame for the PQ's pending defeat. It was her charter, her star candidate, and her lacking debate performance, that helped bring the party down. A personal payback for that is not out of the question.

If she does manage to lose her own seat, this would net 35 for the PQ, 1 less than Boisclair took, and could spell long term troubles for the PQ; especially with the QS nipping at it's sovereigntist heels. 


Huge Liberal Majority.

The Prediction gives the Liberals a comfortable majority, one that can last just about any future event and string of defections.

72 - PLQ - 38.2%
35 - PQ - 28.0% 
14 - CAQ - 23.0%
4 - QS - 9.2%

In addition, the CAQ looks like it will be able to fend off any PQ challenge to it's holdings. On these numbers; especially with the strength the CAQ has been able to show in the polls in the 450 area code, the CAQ should at minimum retain it's 6 seats in the area code; if not gain 2 additional seats.

This will be offset by losses in and around Quebec City, where the Liberals are doing very well. 5 CAQ members are expected to be heavily defeated here, and 4 more narrowly re-elected.

Arthabaska is saved by a strong local candidate. Drummond is one of the ridings I'm most unsure about; but I've marked it CAQ on the map. Nicolet, according to local polls, will go Liberal this election. 

Johnson and Rousseau are the two possible and plausible CAQ gains given PQ weakness. 

The CAQ is thus predicted to lose 7 seats to the Liberals; the 6 around Quebec City, as well as La Prairie. In exchange, they will pick up 2 from the PQ.

The QS is predicted to gain not only one seat; Saint-Marie from the PQ on the math alone; but also Laurier. This is based on my read of the situation; where the QS has been concentrating it's vote. The math suggests that Hochelaga may be more winnable at these vote levels, but my gut tells me that the QS has been putting it's resources into Laurier, and there may be 1 or 2 thousand votes less the QS will get in Hochelaga, in return for 1 or 2 thousand more in Laurier.

Lastly and most importantly, the battle between the Liberals and the PQ. Ridings across the province will go red, especially those once held by Charest's majorities. 


Long term.

Win or lose her seat, Marois will announce she is resigning as PQ leader. With these numbers, almost certainly on election night, or, at the latest, the next day. 

Legault meanwhile manages to single-handedly save his party and his own seat, effectively turning two solid debate performances into a doubling of his party's poll numbers. He remains a threat not only to right of centre parties, but also those proposing change. The EKOS poll indicates that a large number of CAQ supporters are NDP supporters, and in turn, a large number of NDP supporters, are CAQ supporters. While this may seem odd, I've frankly always suspected as much; even noting the similarity between ADQ and NDP vote patterns in the past. While I don't fully understand the mind set, my best read is that these are people who want real change. Legault has managed to connect and hold on to these folks, and remains in a position to pull off a surprise in 2018.

The QS will, regardless of the end result, gain quite a bit of ground. Polls have indicated that they are up across the entire province, and while their seats will come from downtown Montreal, they are seen as less of a Montreal party and more of a Quebec party. They, if they can end up working with the CAQ (likely unintentionally) carve up the PQ, and depending on what happens to the latter, put it down for the count. With the QS being "Oui Oui Oui" and the CAQ being "Oui a la fin" the PQ "Referendum!" may find itself outdated. Simply put, if the QS and CAQ play their cards right; as they have been doing, they can take over and eliminate the PQ.

Lastly is the Liberals, who will settle in for a majority. Philippe Couillard, who is a literal brain surgeon, will become Premier, but has a very difficult job ahead of him. He needs to govern with ethics in a province where govern and ethics have not been associated with one another for some time. Personally, he's seen as more small c conservative, and was even rumored to be a possible CPC candidate. Policy-wise we can expect the new Liberal government to be like the old Liberal government; however that old government was eventually brought down by scandal.

It will thus end with Couillard and his ability to control the possibility of scandal. If he can pull it off, he is very likely to have a long reign as Premier, perhaps 8 years, or 12. If he can not, we may find ourselves here in 4 years talking about what kind of government Legault will form.

4 comments:

  1. A bonus map for everyone.
    http://imgur.com/DBiJSvv
    This is a copy, a mirror image of data I found elsewhere using something that some call address hacking. Note the web address for this blogpost.
    http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2014/04/final-quebec-prediction-pq-slaughter.html
    and the one for the blogpost prior
    http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2014/04/quebec-penultimate-prediction.html
    Note the title of the blog post before that; one also posted in this, the 4th month of the year. "Quebec in the closing days". Can you, without clicking a link, only typing a web address, access that post?
    If so, congrats, you've done address hacking!
    Using this trick I've found some juicy information; but sadly, information that seems wildly out of date. I wont share where I found this however. If a handful of people, like myself, visit this place then there is no problem, but if dozens, if not hundreds of people do, the bandwidth spike will be noticed, and access will be cut off.

    Regardless, this map is someone elses fun little prediction they did to test out their systems. The polling numbers for the parties is as follows, with seats won, and seats leading in.
    PQ - 62 - 2 - 39.86%
    LIB - 46 - 4 - 35.99%
    CAQ - 3 - 5 - 17.57%
    QS - 2 - 0 - 6.08%
    IND - 1 - 0 - 0.49%

    I've given you enough information if you lose closely at this comment to find this yourself; but if you do find it; do not share it's location. I will delete any comments today that do so, and likely any comments tomorrow that do so as well. Monday morning? Go to town.

    Anyway, the "moral of the story" is that these poll numbers match the one of the last polls before the writ was dropped. This map is thus what we went into the election with, and why the PQ called the election in the first place. Compare to the map in the post to see just how much things can change over the course of a single election campaign.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Note, the blog removes the "the" from titles. try "Quebec in closing days"

      Delete
    2. Also note this is not real "hacking" and is this not illegal. You are simply typing web addresses into the web address bar.

      The only difference between doing so randomly is you are doing so in an informed manner.

      Delete
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