Thursday, April 10, 2014

EKOS Poll Puts Hudak PCs in Third Place

You remember when it was us languishing in third place? Now its Hudak's turn (and not just in the approval rankings).

Yes, its just one poll and its within the margin of error and yatta yatta - as BCL put it, that's boring. Let us take this EKOS poll at total face value, and do a projection!

Ontario Liberals: 32.3% - 45 seats
New Democrats: 29.0% - 33 seats
Prog. Conservatives: 27.4% - 28 seats
Green Party: 8.3% - 1 seat

Obviously sitting that low, the Liberals would be hard pressed to get enough seats to form a majority government, but this works out all the same. Their support comes mainly from Toronto (39.7% to 26.6% NDP and 24.1% PC), though they also lead in Eastern Ontario (33.4%) and are in a competitive three-way in the 905 suburbs (29.5% to 33.7% PC and 29% NDP). The Liberals also lead in Northwestern Ontario, which is to say Thunder Bay and Kenora (I think - EKOS doesn't spell it out).

The NDP really build their seat count up in Southwestern Ontario, where they lead with 30.5% to the PC's 27.8% - the reason those numbers are so low is likely because of the higher-than-usual Green result, 14.2%, which also accounts for the Green seat in the projection. The NDP also have a strong lead in Northeastern and Central Ontario, which I believe for EKOS means Algoma, Sudbury, Parry Sound, and so on, though it could also stretch down to Kawartha Lakes.

The PCs would usually have a lead over at least the NDP if it weren't for the low result in the Southwest and also in Eastern Ontario (27.8%). Given how close it is though, and how untrustworthy the regionals generally are thanks to their small sample sizes, I wouldn't worry *too* much if I were a PCer.

Though maybe they should. Given all the recent scandals and issues surrounding the Liberal government in Ontario, you would expect the PCs to have a fairly strong lead, or even the NDP. Yet here we are and neither of them can even surpass the Liberals in a close race as of recently (the last poll to have the PCs in the lead was from February).

The next election in Ontario will turn a lot on the campaign, because the public clearly doesn't care that much in the pre-writ period at this point. They're complacent at best, apathetic (or angry) with their choices at worst. If the campaign can't get voters motivated in whichever party's direction, expect another low-turnout affair that could very easily end up with a fourth-term Liberal government.

Anyways, here's a map:




7 comments:

  1. Ridings in this area: http://imgur.com/5jzeLX8 have always had a strong Green presence; at least since 2004. Both provincially and federally.

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    1. this should link more directly. http://i.imgur.com/5jzeLX8.png

      As well I mean "strong" in terms of how strong the Greens are. IE this is where they are strongest; not in Toronto, but here, around Georgian Bay and Kitchener/Waterloo.

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  2. this is my interpretation on the above map. http://i.imgur.com/3oFJwrM.png
    I just stole Kyle's map and made 3 adjustments. Doug Holiday, the Green Leader, and eliminating what would appear to be a Green riding, considering I believe the actual support base is 2 ridings south of where otherwise expected.

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    1. Also note Kyle's numbers are right. My map has the NDP at 32 not 33, and the Liberals at 44 not 43.

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  3. I prettied up my map http://i.imgur.com/4LmNUmk.png getting ready for a possible summer election!

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  4. As an Ontario voter I am looking forward to the Summer election. No party at the moment deserves a majority. Let's see what happens.

    I feel ridings such as Perth-Wellington and Haliburton-Kwartha Lakes-Brock will not go back to the OLP. The Liberals did strong in these two ridings in the last election because they were held by cabinet ministers. John Wilkinson is not running in Perth-Wellington again which would make that riding difficult. Rick Johnson won his seat because of the John Tory fiasco, so I don't see him coming back.

    Despite, EKOS generally polling the Tories weak. I think the Liberals due have a chance in one rural riding. Northumberland Quinte West. Lou Rinaldi is running again and he only lost his seat by a small margin.

    I think the Liberals are going to try and focus on PC held suburban seats such as Halton, Burlington, Newmarket-Aurora and also 416 seats that they lost to the PCs and NDP like Etobicoke Lakeshore and Davenport.

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  5. The next election is going to see the same tactics that were used in the past 5 provincial elections used here.

    Fear.

    The Libs and Tories will tell you to fear the NDP because of what the last NDP government did.
    The NDP and Libs will tell you to fear the Tories because of what the last Tory government did.
    The NDP and Tories will tell you to fear the Libs because of what the last Lib government did.

    So who is the bigger boogieman? Rae, Harris, or McGunity?
    Frankly I'm just happy to see all 3 on the same list; I hated McGunity and the venom being spewed his way is far to little.

    I think the strategy of being scared of the Tories will continue to work; especially of the right notes are hit.
    McGunity however may also scare off voters; but with Wynne in charge, she may bring them back.

    At this time, I'd say that's most likely, a Liberal victory.

    However.
    There is a chance that the NDP may be able to win the election. Nobody really fears the NDP right now outside of BC. With Mulcair putting a moderate face on the NDP and Horwath not being particularly scary, the NDP could manage to outflank both parties around the left and come in behind them to score a Majority.

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