You remember when it was us languishing in third place? Now its Hudak's turn (and not just in the approval rankings).
Yes, its just one poll and its within the margin of error and yatta yatta - as BCL put it, that's boring. Let us take this EKOS poll at total face value, and do a projection!
Ontario Liberals: 32.3% - 45 seats
New Democrats: 29.0% - 33 seats
Prog. Conservatives: 27.4% - 28 seats
Green Party: 8.3% - 1 seat
Obviously sitting that low, the Liberals would be hard pressed to get enough seats to form a majority government, but this works out all the same. Their support comes mainly from Toronto (39.7% to 26.6% NDP and 24.1% PC), though they also lead in Eastern Ontario (33.4%) and are in a competitive three-way in the 905 suburbs (29.5% to 33.7% PC and 29% NDP). The Liberals also lead in Northwestern Ontario, which is to say Thunder Bay and Kenora (I think - EKOS doesn't spell it out).
The NDP really build their seat count up in Southwestern Ontario, where they lead with 30.5% to the PC's 27.8% - the reason those numbers are so low is likely because of the higher-than-usual Green result, 14.2%, which also accounts for the Green seat in the projection. The NDP also have a strong lead in Northeastern and Central Ontario, which I believe for EKOS means Algoma, Sudbury, Parry Sound, and so on, though it could also stretch down to Kawartha Lakes.
The PCs would usually have a lead over at least the NDP if it weren't for the low result in the Southwest and also in Eastern Ontario (27.8%). Given how close it is though, and how untrustworthy the regionals generally are thanks to their small sample sizes, I wouldn't worry *too* much if I were a PCer.
Though maybe they should. Given all the recent scandals and issues surrounding the Liberal government in Ontario, you would expect the PCs to have a fairly strong lead, or even the NDP. Yet here we are and neither of them can even surpass the Liberals in a close race as of recently (the last poll to have the PCs in the lead was from February).
The next election in Ontario will turn a lot on the campaign, because the public clearly doesn't care that much in the pre-writ period at this point. They're complacent at best, apathetic (or angry) with their choices at worst. If the campaign can't get voters motivated in whichever party's direction, expect another low-turnout affair that could very easily end up with a fourth-term Liberal government.
Anyways, here's a map: