Monday, April 7, 2014

As the dust settles in Quebec.

Counting is still ongoing, but coming to a close. A few things are now becoming clear.

1 - The CAQ did as well as the polls said. Moreso in fact.
2 - The PQ did as poorly as the polls said. Moreso in fact.
3 - The PLQ matched their polls.

4 - The CAQ has shifted geographically.
Based, formerly, in an around Quebec City, with smatterings around Montreal, the party now finds itself based around Montreal, with smatterings in and around Quebec City.

5 - QS likely to gain 3rd seat.
Not quite as good as I had expected, but still important. The riding remains close, however.

6 - Charter is a total failure.
Quebec has clearly and resoundingly rejected the Charter.

7 - Marois is defeated.
Not only provincewide, but in her own riding. With only 3 polls to go, Marois trails by a full thousand votes.

While there are still ridings up for grabs, this appears to be how the chips will fall.


  1. One thing about Quebec that I don't understand, why all leftist parties want separation? The only choice for federalist leftists is the liberal party, although it is headed by a conservative guy (at least that's my impression)

  2. This is why Mulcair wants to start a QNDP. Soveriegnty has failed progressives and its time to move on and build bridges.

    1. NPDQ would have a great start. EKOS showed us that 40% of CAQ voters and 50% of QS voters are NDP voters federally. If they all switched, and I believe they would, that starts the party at 13% in the polls. That also assumes that no PQ and PLQ voters switch, which they would.

      Frankly, there is not room for more than 3 truly competitive parties in a province. If the NPDQ becomes competitive, either the PQ or CAQ needs to go away, or find a little corner (like QS has) to huddle in.