Sunday, March 2, 2014

Thought Experiment: provincial vs federal votes

In 2011, we had a Federal and Provincial election, here in Ontario, within 6 months of one another.

In the Provincial election, we had the following results:
1,625,102 - OLP (vote number)
1,530,076 - OPC
981,508 - ONDP
126,021 - GPO

Federally the results were as follows
2,457,463 - CPC
1,417,435 - NDPC
1,400,302 - LPC
207,435 - GPC

Far more people voted Federally than Provincially. 5.5 million vs 4.3 million.

My question is what if, though some happenstance, you combined this.

Rather than electing two legislatures, only one is up for election. It has all the powers of both the province and the federal government. However, rather than the parties merging, as would be logical - IE the Ontario Liberals with the Liberal Party of Canada - the parties remain separate. How would people vote.

You might say the answer is obvious; they'd vote like this:

2,457,463 - CPC
1,625,102 - OLP
1,530,076 - OPC
1,417,435 - NDPC
1,400,302 - LPC
981,508 - ONDP
207,435 - GPC
126,021 - GPO

The problem is that this is more votes than there are voters in Ontario.

Another simple answer is just half the votes for all parties. The problem here is this presumes that anyone who voted for both the Ontario Liberal Party and the Liberal Party of Canada would have a 50-50 chance of voting for one or the other. Turnout would suggest the federal parties are more popular than the provincial parties.

This goes to the heart of my question. If given the choice between the same party's provincial and federal branches; to which does a voter lend his or her vote?

3 comments:

  1. Makes a big difference who the leader of each party is, and how long that branch has been in power. I think in the next round people will be much more likely to vote for the LPC federally, and... I'm not sure what they're going to do provincially. Should be interesting.

    ReplyDelete
  2. I've been digging and one of the Quebec polls, asking about leaders and the NO side gave me a critical insight. It compared, directly, Couillard to Trudeau, along with Mulcair and Harper.

    My conclusion; which matches with my earlier research is as follows:

    Those without "special reason" favour the feds 2 to 1
    Those with "special reason" do the opposite

    One group with a "special reason" is Francophone Quebecois, who due to their ties to Quebec over Canada, have a special reason to do the opposite.

    Rural Albertans may also have "special reason", but, in 2014, given the fact that alienation has decreased in the past 3 decades, I'm going to say "no" for now on this.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So lets take Ontario as our example. 2.4M votes for the Tories, federally, and 1.4M for the NDP and Liberals.

      Now we apply our ratio, 2:1. The simplest way to do this is use fractions of 2/3 and 1/3. Thus, we multiply these numbers by 0.6666, getting 1.6M and 0.9M

      Now we get our provincial numbers. 1.6M for the Liberals, 1.5M for the Tories, and 1.0M for the NDP. This time we multiply by 0.3333 getting us .5, .5, and .3

      Our totals thus are as follows.
      1.6M - CPC
      0.9M - NDPC
      0.9M - LPC
      0.5M - OLP
      0.5M - OPC
      0.3M - ONDP

      Interesting, and something I also wanted to examine, is party structure. The PC Party and CPC don't even have the same name. Sure they share a critical word, and tens of thousands of the same members, but they are in no way the same party, legally. The Liberals and Liberals, however, once were the same, but now are separated. There is a "Liberal Party of Canada (Ontario)" and a "Ontario Liberal Party", which are two distinct political organizations. They, officially, share nothing. Compare this to the New Democratic Party. The NDP is the NDP. If you are a member of the Ontario NDP you are thus a member of the NDP of Canada, and vice versa. The NDP uses this system in 9 provinces, and, with a new provincial party being organized in Quebec - literally right now (though not running officially in the election) - that standard now applies across all 10 provinces.

      This:
      1.6M - CPC
      1.2M - NDP
      0.9M - LPC
      0.5M - OLP
      0.5M - OPC
      thus becomes our answer to my question.

      Delete