Sunday, March 16, 2014

Sunday Prediction, Liberal majority?

The latest prediction is for a Liberal majority. This is based on trends; IE the Liberals keep doing better than better while the PQ seems to be in trouble in the media every day without fail. In addition, more and more CAQ vote is bleeding away with evidence that this vote is going to the Liberals more than towards the PQ.

PKP has been a disaster for the PQ. It's not impossible for them to recover from this, in fact, the attention seems to have been dying down. The problem here is that PKP puts the focus on sovereignty, an issue the PQ does not want to run on. So what does the PQ want to run on? The Charter and all those things that many Anglo Canadians think are "racist"; that's what the PQ wants to run on because that's what Franco (Nous) Quebecois want. The PQ knows this and wants to run on this because if they can pull it off, they can win.

The biggest problem facing the PQ however is the economy. There is a growing perception, especially given some first week comments, that Marois is not a good manager of the economy. If the PLQ can take this message home, they can win.

Speaking of which, the PLQ has stopped messing things up, and by that, I mean, not much bad press this week. Frankly, the two are really one in the same. Even if you mess nothing up; if you end up with bad press, you've "messed up". In politics, perception is reality, and thus, weather you are messing up or not is totally dependant on how the media reacts. The only difference between an election in 2014 and an election in 1994 is that social media counts.

This brings us to the CAQ and QS. They've not messed up; but, that's in large part cause the media has been ignoring them. Last election there was almost a tie in the popular vote at 31%. There was a poll out suggesting this election there is a tie at 36%. Now another poll suggests the tie is at 37%. This has to come from somewhere, and that means less votes for the CAQ and QS.

Now QS is in an interesting spot; while their vote is almost certain to increase, they are still far too small and concentrated to make a true province-wide impact. 2 elections ago, one of their co-leaders won his seat. Last election, the other co-leader won the seat the party came closest to the election prior. Now, one of their new co-leaders is running in the seat they were closest to last time. The QS, if they want to both remain relevant and become more of an option, need to add that 3rd seat this election.

The CAQ however, is in deep deep doo-doo.

They are trending down and fast. It's not hard to see them taking half the vote they did last time, if not less, and considering the relative closeness of the races they did win, such a loss would be devastating. Frankly, my pegging them at 5 is going to be a reality unless they can somehow recover. A recent poll shows that not only did they lose support, but half of those saying they will vote CAQ may change their mind. It was half in the last poll.

So (again with the explaining myself) that is terrible because of math. If they CAQ was at 100 last time, and 50 said they might change their mind, and they are at 80 this time, and 40 say they might change their mind, it means 10 more have said they may change their mind, as, of the original 50, 20 are already gone, leaving 30.

The CAQ may need to repeat itself and merge with another party, one with A and Q in their name, and bring on board a new larger-than-life leader. Given that it was aDq and is not Caq, I suggest "AQB" for the new party! Alliance Quebec (Maximie) Bernier. They don't even new a new party, just merge with the provincial Tories. After the 2018 election they can merge with someone else and try again; sadly, then they run out of letters.

If they fail to do so, Bonnardel will likely become the next CAQ leader. He took 52% in his riding last time, with the PQ second (important because polls suggest CAQ vote is headed more Liberal than PQ) He is also very personally popular within the riding; so much so that if the CAQ only wins a single seat, I can say with confidence that it will be his seat.

Lastly, I want to explain more/again about what these "predictions" are.

They are not projections.

I have not run numbers that have told me that the Liberals will win 63 seats, thus, they will win a majority.
I've run numbers that have told me the Liberals will win a majority, thus, they will win 63 seats.

These are simply the 63 most likely seats the party will win. Since, however, this is not a riding-by-riding projection, it may does contain errors (heck, even RxR projections contain errors)

La Piniere is one good example. If I had made it Independent, I'd simply have found another riding the Liberals were likely to win, to keep them at 63.


  1. Perhaps in 2019 they can become the QAA and if Quebec separates in 2021, merge with the CAA to remain in business.

    Can't really see Bernier, Legault, or Dumont fixing a car though.

  2. I've uploaded some bonus maps for those who read the comments.
    1 - CAQ "win"

    2 - QS "win"

    3 - What if the PQ and PLQ were dead

    4 - Same as above, but, in the following election 4 years later.

    I apologize for the bar graph troubles on map #1; I was focused on the seats and forgot to properly update it!