I'll note that since the last Nova Scotia election was rather recent, and since the poll does not show a radical change from that result, I will not be covering Nova Scotia.
Prince Edward Island
The damage the PC Party faced Way back, a year ago, when I first posted on it has yet to heal. The NDP has consistently been in second place since the incident, and remains in second place even as the NDP's provincial numbers in other provinces - which were virtually all boosted by the 2011 election showing - are returning to more traditional levels.
The Liberals are now up to 53%, compared to 22% for the NDP. This puts the Liberals up 4 points and the NDP down 4 points. The NDP, however, remains ahead of the PC Party, unchanged at 17%.
Normally a 53-22 split would mean the opposition is lucky to take one riding, but, the NDP has always had a more concentrated vote base. My prediction is as follows:
Crane may retain her seat and become the first Independent to win a seat in the provincial legislature in over 100 years. Meyers has the benefit of having a strong showing in his riding last time, and as leader, may be the only PC member returned. The NDP however could take two Charlottetown ridings, especially if they use their resources wisely. If so, this would make Mike Redmond the first NDP leader of the Official Opposition in PEI history.
First off, I want to apologize for the map. The copy I had was out of date and I realized far too late, so I had to rush to get this one up.
The CRA Poll shows the PC Party returning to more traditional levels. If you want to know what ridings they win at 31% that they would not win, by my guess, at 25%, the answer can be found in the map error - those ridings "outlined" in another colour.
There is some good news in the numbers. The Liberal leader seems unable to break 31% popularity, and the Premier has recovered slightly. The PC Party can still recover; though a victory seems unlikely.
The NDP however has maintained a strong showing. The problem for the party is that in NB their vote has always been very distributed. There are two Saint John ridings that will almost certainly fall with this vote level, and I've also given the leader his seat, as his staying power has far exceeded my expectations, so credit where it is due.
In the end you end up with a "traditionally sized" liberal victory; with the only real note being the 3 NDP members.
Newfoundland and Labrador
As noted in the CRA poll Newfoundland and Labrador has a new premier; or at least, new from the last survey. Tom Marshall - seen on the map as the small blue splotch in the western end of the province - has restored his party in the polls to something respectable. Meanwhile, the NDP, still suffering from their own problems, have been reduced to 13%.
A 53% victory, with 33% for the opposition is not abnormal in Newfoundland. Like Alberta, New Brunswick, and PEI, Newfoundland is one of the provinces that tends to reward it's governments with very comfortable majorities.
I don't see how anyone else can win beyond the Liberals. Everything is pretty well done and written in stone at this point. Sure there is always the chance they can screw it up - I mean, only 4 years ago this was a party that had to beg people to run for leader - but the party has too deep a history to falter so easily. The only way the Liberals lose the next election is if the seriously screw something up, and given the party and what I know about it, that will not be happening.
Lastly a bit more on Quebec. I'm finalizing my map for my predictions. I will post this one today, and will from then on only post on Sundays!
Remember that these are not official projections - Kyle will be doing those - these are simply predictions.
In this update, we see the PQ and Liberals closing, with the PLQ having a good poll - but a dubious one. Also noted is one riding where an Independent may have an effect.