During the convention, a "poll" was released; one that was clearly written in such a way to favour the party. The basic question was would you vote for a Liberal government or not. Do the Tories need to be defeated or not. This ignores possibilities such as voting NDP.
Since the poll did not clarify exactly which party people supported when using this method, it left me with only three numbers to work with. The supposed maximum Liberal vote. The proposed minimal Conservative vote. And "Others". As you know, while we might only have 3 parties with status in Parliament, a full 11% of voters, or, 1.6 million people, voted for parties not among these 3 in the last election; well over half of them for the Bloc, and over a third of them for the Greens.
The poll treats Canada's two "Middle Size" parties as though it were one of the "Small Size" parties. To note; the votes cast, combined, for all Independent, Non-Affiliated, Christian Heritage, Marxist-Leninist, Libertarian, Progressive Canadian, Rhino, Pirate, Communist, Canadian Action, Marijuana, Animal Alliance, Western Block, United, and First Peoples National parties, was a grand total of 130,521, or 0.89% of the vote. This number, even increased fourfold, could not match the votes for the Green Party alone.
However; the 1.6 million Canadians that voted for one of the parties not from the big 3 are, combined, more than one million votes behind the Liberals alone.
I accept the argument that in a poll trying to figure out who should be government, the two middle size parties - which realistically have 0 chance or winning the next election (even if something extraordinary happens; it's just too late, too close to the election) - should be disincluded. It does however make seat projections difficult.
What I've decided to do is thus. In provinces where the Greens would not win a single seat, even if their last-election vote was quadrupled in every riding, the Greens are excluded. This leaves them contending only in BC. In Provinces where the Greens, with all of the "Non Big 2" vote, would win more seats than the NDP would with the same vote, I've assigned all of said vote to the Greens. This means BC; where with the numbers given (14% provincewide) the NDP would not win a single seat, but the Greens would.
In Quebec, I tried to find the lowest poll ever for the Bloc, which turned out to be 9.6%. I then presumed a drop of 1/6th (it was a figure I've used in the past for rough estimations that has served me well) which drops them to 8%. The remaining (26%) was assigned in whole to the NDP. I should note here, doing this only gains the NDP 2 seats (Beauport from the Tories and Shefford from the Liberals) compared to if I'd actually entered the Bloc at 10%.
The end result?
First; the numbers.
Greens - 1
NDP - 17, including 12 from Quebec. (15 and 10 in the case noted above)
CPC - 109, winning only BC (21 of 42 seats) and the Prairies (18 of 28)
LIB - 211, winning 25 of 32 Atlantic seats, 83 of 121 in Ontario, and 17 of 34 in Alberta.
This poll shows what I've been trying to say for quite a while; we have real potential in Alberta. While you might laugh, remember that similar polls show the NDP had potential in Quebec for years before they finally won. The potential is there, we just need to grab at it.
Since I suspect the Quebec figures to be questioned, I'll point out that the NDP retains party status with as little as a 20%N-14%B split in the vote. This would give the NDP 7 seats in the province. While I fully expect critics to point to their drop from near 60 to 7 and say this means the NDP has lost Quebec, I'd point out that 7/12ths of their Caucus would then come from the province. The NDP can remain a "Quebec Based" party with only a half dozen seats in the province; and in this case, they would do just that.