Tuesday, December 3, 2013

Around the world: UK Projection

UK
Lets start with a map!
If you want a bigger view, you can right-click and open it in a new tab or window.

This is a projection that's based on math; not exactly based on the ElectoMatic, as, I don't have one for the UK, but based on a respected website, in particular, http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/ and it's "Advanced Swingometer"

There are a few notes.

1 - Scotland
I had to play jiggery pokery with Scotland's results. I tried the projection two ways, the first gave me 5 seats, the next gave me 41. I decided to split the difference and aim for 23. Since the two projections were way off from one another, chances are the 23 figure is wildly inaccurate. I ran a few further projections and the median was closer to 7 for the SNP, which would result in a half dozen or so more seats for both Labour and the Liberal Democrats.

2 - UKIP
The swingometer I used does not represent UKIP so I had to add in these areas using the Local vote for UKIP. This could, however, over-state result, as UKIP did rather well in the most recent local elections; but, I decided that after accounting for local voting strengths and party machine type things, that these 10 seats are not wildly out of line, even if it's quite possible for the party to be shut out. Every one of these seats would otherwise go Conservative.

3 - Northern Ireland
Polls are few and far between in NI so I had to make some adjustments as well. This is closer to the Stormont results. One thing that's been increasing slowly has been cross-group voting, so that nationalists are willing to vote for unionists and vice versa. The number of voters doing this is still rather small, but I made a presumption that the UUP could capitalize on this if it truly wanted to.

A more "realistic" projection, IE one based on current math as opposed to the current trends from now to 2015, is as follows:





So what of the rest of the world?


NEPAL


An election was held in Nepal recently. Explaining it would be quite difficult. The simplest way to explain how politics works in the country is with a few anecdotes.


First, the IRA from Ireland. It split in half during the civil war in that country, becoming PT-IRA and AT-IRA.
The AT-IRA later split into the O-IRA and the P-IRA (the P-IRA is famous for being "the" IRA from "The Troubles" in Northern Ireland)
The P-IRA suffered a splinter group when the C-IRA peeled off. Later the R-IRA peeled off as well.
Most of these groups have political parties they are "un"officially attached to. In order, they are; Fine Gael, Fianna Fail, The Workers Party, and Sinn Fein. If the polls are right, after the next election in Ireland, 3 of those 4 parties will take 75% of the seats or more.

This explains, partially, the various splinter groups in Nepal politics. There are 8 communist parties, for example, with varying degree of seriousness and support.



Second, understand that Nepal had a somewhat unpopular monarchy for years. The one day the crown prince decided to shoot everybody; including himself. At least that's the official story. Oh, did I mention he becomes king for 3 days in a coma after this?

The new King is Gayendra, who had been King before in the 50's (did I mention politics in this country is confusing?) One of his first acts was to undo all of this "constitutional monarchy" stuff that was so cool in the 90s.
Somehow he declared himself absolute ruler, then, did it again a bit later (again with the confusing)

Eventually people started to think this guy is crazy. Some even speculated he masterminded the massacare, though there is not even the slightest of evidence of that. Regardless, Nepal decided enough was enough and they decared a Republic, and the Monarchy was abolished in 2008.


These facts combined will help make sense of the results below.




2013 - Still counting. Rough results:

197 Socialist (Congress)
184 Communist - Marxist
88 Communist - Maoist
25 Conservative (RPPN)
107 Other (Mostly left-wing)

Note: Other includes 5 other Communist parties


2008 - Last election:

229 Communist - Maoist
115 Socialist (Congress)
108 Communist - Marxist
54 Social-Democratic (Jana Adhikar)
8 Conservative* (RPP)
87 Other (Mostly left-wing)

Note: Largest Conservative party; other parties finished with more seats. Also note the RPPN, the 4th placed party in this election is a splinter of the RPP from the last election.


NOTE: ELECTIONS FROM BEFORE THIS TIME HAVE BEEN SCALED UP TO 601 SEATS FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES.


1999 election
325 Congress
208 Marxist
33 Conservative
35 Other
War Maoist (fighting civil war against govt)



1994 election
258 Marxist
243 Congress
58 Conservative
42 Other
War Maoist (As part of Unity)



1991 election
322 Congress (As part of Jana-Andolan)
202 Marxist (As part of Jana-Andolan)
9 Conservative*
42 Other
26 Maoist (As part of Unity)

*Other parties elected with more seats; simply the largest Conservative total.

Note that Unity fought pre-civil war conflicts with the government of a violent nature. Jana-Andolan was more of a non-violent movement. The combined pressure resulted in the bringing of Democracy to the country.


The previous flirtation with democracy was as follows:

1959 election
408 Congress
105 Conservative
28 Another Conservative Party
22 Communist (Combined Maoist-Marxist)
38 Other


GERMANY

And elsewhere still?

In Germany, the CDU and SPD have come to a deal for a coalition government, but the SPD is putting this before it's membership in a mail in ballot. Some say that there is a chance that the deal could fail. Merkel for her part wore a very visible Green blazer during the presser, something the media agreed was her way of telling the SPD that if they say no, she'll go to the Greens.

HONDURAS

Honduras went to the polls a week ago, and, I'll be honest, it's not a country I normally follow. The history of the country is a two party system, with 3rd parties finding it almost as hard to break in as they do in the USA.

This time, however, things are different. 

The Nationals (Conservatives) and Liberals have generally traded the top office. In 2005 Manuel Zelaya, the Liberal candidate, won the election for President. He began to upset some in his own party by governing from the left. Think of Trudeau Sr vs the history of the Liberal Party to 1968, but without an NDP there. As a result of his unpopularity within his own party, he was overthrown in a coup. His Conservative Opponent was placed in office and won an disputed election in 2009. 

Supporters of Zelaya have now organized a new left-wing party, Liberty, while those upset with all the political bafflegab have started their own party, the Party of Anti Corruption, or PAC. 


In the Presidential race, the National candidate has won, capturing 9% more of the vote than his nearest opponent, the Liberty leader. 

Trying to figure out Parliamentary results is not as easy as it should be. However, I've been able to determine that with some adjustments (like the Liberals doing poorly) the results follow the Presidential vote. Thus the new parliament, give or take, should look something like this:

46 - National (down from 71)
36 - Liberty (up from 0)
20 - Liberal (down from 45)
18 - PAC (up from 0)
8 - Others (down from 12)

It should be noted however that despite winning by a large margin, the Liberty party is crying foul, as, sadly, is the standard in elections in latin america, and thus explains simply why I do not usually care to follow said elections. 

4 comments:

  1. This post was started a few days ago and only posted now when it became clear Honduran results would not be published.

    The more up-to-date Nepal results are as follows....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 03DEC2013

      196 - Congress
      175 - Marxist
      80 - Maoist
      24 - Conservative
      14 - Loktantrik
      13 - Other Conservative
      11 - Other Loktantrik
      10 - Jana Adhikar
      42 - Others



      Delete
  2. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Is that a house of commons seating chart I spy judging by the aisles? If so, the house only has room for 427/650 MPs, so a seating chart becomes somewhat fanciful

    ReplyDelete