Thursday, November 21, 2013

Quebec Update - Federal Projection

I've been able to run a new projection for Quebec based on some new polling numbers. In short, we see a massive change from my last projection - one which used the regions of Quebec - and one that looks a lot more like the previous projection - one that did not.

Why such a change? Why does the NDP for example lose their Corona stronghold? The simple answer is too many polls like this
http://www.threehundredeight.com/2013/11/federal-liberals-up-among-francophones.html
The NDP did, it seems, have a strong lead in the Corona, right up until Trudeau came in; after that there was a switch, where Liberal polling numbers fell on the Island of Montreal, while rose in the Corona.

I do warn though, the sample sizes are probably playing with this, as well, if a pollster decides Laval is more "Montreal" than "Corona" that may too affect the result. Either way, due to the high swing back and forth, I also weighted the previous result, and what I came up with was a different balance.

After all the weighting, I have the following numbers.
MONTREAL
36.3% - LIB
24.8% - NDP
17.1% - BQ
14.6% - CON

CORONA
34.9% - LIB
28.0% - NDP
24.5% - BQ

REST OF QUEBEC
28.9% - NDP
23.8% - BQ
22.9% - LIB
19.0% - CON

The new map looks like this:





While these maps look radically different from the last set, the only real change is a net gain of 2 seats for the Liberals at the expense of the NDP.

The NDP is at least saved by the fact that many of its Quebec star performers would still get re-elected via this projection; while some of their weaker members would go down to defeat.

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