Friday, November 8, 2013

Provinces, Senate, Montreal, and other randomness.


Earl Andrew, of the Canadian Election Atlas, has a great post on Montreal. I recommend checking it out.

His adding of all the various popular votes is what I was doing before realizing the view counts for my Montreal posts were rather low. Adding earl's figures we get the following:

425,230 - 30.8% - all EDC candidates combined
387,079 - 28.1% - all PM candidates combined
235,921 - 17.1% - all VCM candidates combined
228,319 - 16.5% - all CM candidates combined
103,060 - 07.5% - Everybody Else

It's clear Bergeron deserves to be Opposition leader.

I also can't help but notice how well his vote matches that of traditional NDP support:


I've decided to apply the same logic I did in my two different posts on Congress, and try to figure out what the "real" Senate standings are. It was quite simple really. Results are below. They are based on how Senators voted for/against the expulsion motions.


In the Provinces we've had a few changes.

In Newfoundland (legislature) party standings look like this.
PC - 35
Lib - 7
NDP - 3
Ind-NDP - 2
Vacant - 1

In PEI we have this:
Lib - 23
PC - 3
Ind - 1

Alberta has this:
PC - 59
Wld - 17
Lib - 5
NDP - 4
Ind - 2

There are Vacancies in places like Manitoba and Quebec, but they are in such solid ridings that the end result won't change.

The biggest changes are in the provinces I've outlined.

In Alberta, the changes we've seen are due to MLAs doing things which are - how to say - not quite right. One of them was caught - "accused" - trying to pay for sex, or something of the sort.

It is in PEI and Newfoundland where we find opposition parties that are tearing themselves apart. We may, as a result of this, see the PEI NDP do very well while the NL NDP does very poorly.

Also to note is the number of Federal independents we currently have. Some of them may be able to win their seats in the next federal election. I've done a bit of research and it seems that a few things happen to Independent MPs who run for re-election

1 - They are usually able to retain at least 10% of the vote they received while running for a political party.
2 - They frequently are able to suck up votes from all the other parties (IE the one they were not a member of) likely under the guise of thus being able to beat said party.
3 - Least frequently, but it happens, is that they are able to hold on to the vote from their own party.

Thus the question is who among Heyer, Rathgeber, and Mourani will be able to to some or all of these 3 and hold on to their seats.

I encourage comments and feedback on that. Which of these 3 Independent MPs do you believe will have the support needed to be re-elected?


  1. Out of the three of them? I would say Maria Mourani, if she could run again in the riding she has now. With adding Cartierville onto Ahuntsic in the next election it complicates matters since a fair amount of it is Liberal, but with the last election Ahuntsic was essentially nearly a three-way tie, with Mourani just edging out the NDP candidate.

    She would hold respect with the voters, I would say, because of how she was put out of the Bloc. If she decided to run again as her riding was now, it would turn into a rather interesting four-way tie scenario. However, I would say Ahuntsic-Cartierville will probably lean Liberal...but for any of the three ridings here, she has the capability to pull it off.

    Bruce Hyer probably has a bit of an advantage in Thunder Bay-Superior North, but not too much. Both the Federal and Provincial NDP have a strong enough base in Northern Ontario that with whomever wins the nomination to run, they'll more than likely win in the next election and by a respectable margin.

    Brent Rathgeber is interesting, especially with reports that Ryan Hastman wants to try for the Conservative nomination in the reconfigured riding of St. Albert - Edmonton (where I assume Rathgeber will run). Even though this is one of those ridings where the Conservatives are safe because of where it is (in Alberta), and I would have to assume that even with Rathgeber on the ballot the Conservatives will probably win big again there, I would also love to see the vote split and somehow, have either the New Democratic or Liberal candidate come up the middle (not impossible, especially considering Rathgeber has lost to the provincial NDP and Hastman lost to Linda Duncan in Edmonton-Strathcona in 2011).

    1. St. Albert has a history of voting Liberal on occasion, especially provincially. With unofficial, or better yet, official support form the Liberals, Rathgeber could win. Hyer is also almost certainly going to get official support from the Greens.