Thursday, November 7, 2013

Latest projection - federal - and ElectoMatic lite version

Teddy here with a slight change in plan as to what I was planning to upload and when, in response to viewer count of previous posts.

Therefore, without further adieu, I present a new "ElectoMatic lite" like the regular program, but with fewer options (and other problems)

As well as maps, starting with the headline map shocker.

This is based on the most recent poll averages. The lead we have in so many Calgary seats is as surprising to me. I had thought two, based on a strong campaign, but 3 with a weak minority? That honestly surprises me.

The Bloc would manage quite a few seats, but, if they drop just a few points, that total declines quickly. This result would be what people nowadays would call a bad election for the NDP in Quebec. Remember, though, that it was only a short few years ago that 1 NDP seat was seen as a "massive breakthrough". 

There is also a disclaimer that because this is based on the ElectoMatic Lite, it does not take into account regional polling variations. I strongly suspect with properly updated regionals, Quebec will look very different.

Also of note is what happens in and around Toronto. In particular the total sweep of Mississauga and Brampton. 

I will be keeping track of poll averages and make similar posts every so often. Hopefully

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