Thursday, October 17, 2013

US Congress (fun with numbers)

A quick post for thinking about.

The US Congress recently decided to re-open the government. In the Senate, all Democrats present voted for this. In the House, all Democrats, again, voted for this.

In both houses, however, the Republicans split. In the Senate, 28 Republicans voted for the deal while 18 opposed it.

In the House, 87 supported their own Speaker, while 144 voted against his proposal.

Those 144 can be thought of as the Tea Party... but, if you actually check statements and media records, only about 90 house members are on record as being Tea Party supporters.

I decided to apply some math!

This means that for every declared Tea Party member, there are 1.6 members when it comes time to vote.

Next, I took that number of declared members of the "Progressive Caucus" - a group supportive of the 99% - and applied the same 1.6 modifier.

Lastly, I noted that, as a share of seats, there are 2.5 less Senators in the Tea Party than House members. I applied this as well to the Progressives. The results were as follows:

99% - Progressives
DEM - Democrats
GOP - Republicans
TEA - Tea Party

Senate - House
19 - 99% - 116
34 - DEM - 85
28 - GOP - 87
18 - TEA - 144

What interests me is what happens when you merge the two centrist forces into 1 United Party.

Senate - House
19 - 99% - 116
61 - 1UP - 172
18 - TEA - 144

This, especially the house results, explain why the current House of Representatives is so dysfunctional.

(Note, there are 3 Vacancies in the House at this time. The new NJ Senator is counted as a Democrat.)

2 comments:

  1. "as a share of seats, there are 2.5 less Senators in the Tea Party than House members"

    Let me run you though the math so this makes a bit more sense.

    62.3% of the House GOP is Tea Party, while, 39.1% of the Senate GOP is.

    In the house that means 87-144. However. Multiply 87 by 2.5. This gets you 217.5 VS 144 Tea Party, making the share of Tea Party members 39.8%, close to the above noted.

    Thus 2.5 was applied to the Democrats in the same manner, giving us a 35.3% share of Senators, or, 19 of them.

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  2. You may be wondering why the Senate is so moderate compare to the house? That's actually quite simple. To win a state-wide race, you NEED to be more moderate.

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