I decided to take on the task of figuring out what the heck is up in Montreal. Not an easy thing to do by any means.
I compared each seat on Montreal's City Council to it's same in the last election. Due to the complex way Montreal is organized, this was, again, complex.
Managing to deal with resignations and by-elections, I do have some interesting results.
Lets first, however, note a recent poll that came out today. I've added this, 50-50, to the existing poll average, and have the following results:
Coderre - 40%
Bergeron - 22%
Joly - 20%
Cote - 14%
But back to the council.
First to start with where things are and where they began.
The largest party in Council is what I have called the "Little Liberals". This is the party lead by Coderre (technically the party is named after him). The party has 17 seats on the council.
Of those 17, 14 come from Union Montreal. This is the former governing party, that was racked by scandal. 2 come from Vision Montreal, the party, lead in the last election, by a former PQ minister.
1 came from Project Montreal. A "clean up city hall" sort of poplistish party.
The second largest party, and the one holding the mayor's seat, is the Coalition. They have 16 members. One of those, as noted, is the Mayor, who took said seat from Union Montreal. Of the 15 remaining, 10 came from Vision, and 5 from Union Montreal. Their candidate for office is Marcel Cote. This party can be thought of as the "Old Left"
Project Montreal, as noted above, is still kicking. The party has 10 members. 8 of them have been with the party since the last election, while 2 came over from Vision. Bergeron, the party's founder, is their candidate.
A large number of Independents sit on the council. 10 of the 12 are former Union Montreal members. 1 is from Project Montreal, and 1 from Vision.
There are 2 local parties. That is, the parties are named after the locality they run in. Both have 2 seats, for a total of 4. There are also 3 parties named after the persons who lead them, with 1 member (that person) each. All 7 of these councillors were once members of Union Montreal.
There are also 3 vacant seats. 2 held by the UM, and 1 by Vision.
Lastly there is Melanie Joly. She is not in council, nor does her party have any seats, but as a "New Left" sort of candidate, she seems to be Nenshi-ing her way into the race. Weather she manages to win or not will remain to be seen as the media spotlight will become more and more focused on her.
That's great, but where did things start?
As noted, one of the UM seats, the Mayor's seat, is currently held by CM. I will discount this to make for easier comparisons.
Of the 10 people elected on the Project Montreal slate, 8 of them remain. 1 has gone Independent, and 1 has joined the Coalition.
Vision managed 16 councillors. Of those, 10 are in the Coalition, 2 have joined the "Little Liberals", 2 have joined Project Montreal, 1 has gone Independent, and 1 seat is now Vacant.
Union Montreal, with 38 seats last election, has seen the biggest shift; mostly as the party no longer exists.
14 of the members, or, 50% of them, now support Coderre and his "Little Liberals".
10 of them, over a third (36%) are now Independents.
7 of them, a quarter (25%), are now members of those "microparties" I mentioned.
5 of them, or 18%, are now in the Coalition
2 of these seats (7%) are now vacant
Thus, while inaccurate for many reasons, it could be thought of this way.
Coderre and his "Little Liberals" are the rump of the Union Montreal party. They remain a centrist force.
Cote and his "Old Left" are, by in large, Vision Montreal.
Bergeron, and his "Clean up the place" party, continues from before.
And Joly, with her "New Left" supporters, want to shake up everything.
In the 2009 election, the Mayoral results were as follows:
Tremblay - UM - 37.9%
Harel - Vision - 32.73%
Bergeron - PM - 25.45%
If you fudge the numbers a bit (to 38%, 33%, and 25% respectively) you could say Coderre is currently up by 2, Bergeron is down by 3, and the combined Cote-Joly vote is up by 1... However given how complex everything I just explained above is, perhaps such a simple explanation is but a pipe dream.