Tuesday, October 22, 2013

Calgary Election

More analysis of what happened (a landslide) and what did not (a landslide as big as new Calgary mayors usually get) will likely come after sunrise. However, for the time being, I wanted to go over some of the basics and present some numbers.

First, over to Edmonton, where I wanted to take note of the victory of Don Iveson. While Iveson and Nenshi are officially both non-partisan, I'd have to honestly say if they were forced to pick a federal party that best matches their real political beliefs and values, both would be firmly in the Liberal column.

Back to Calgary though, where Nenshi managed a huge win, taking 74% of the vote to 21% for the nearest competitor, Jon Lord. The remainder of the pack managed a grand total of 5% when combined.

This [[wikipedia]] map details the locations of the various Wards

In the last election, Nenshi managed to win all the wards save 3. Those 3 were Wards 14 and 12 in the south - areas that traditionally have voted more right-wing - as well as Ward 10 in the east.

This election, with such an overwhelming win, it's no surprise that Nenshi has won every Ward, and, won every Ward over Lord not just by a 2-to-1 margin, but by closer to a 2.5-to-1 margin. There are, however, some notable oddities. 

Ward 8, in the core of the city, was Nenshi's best Ward. This is not surprising. What is? His second best ward was not nearby Ward 7, but, Ward 3 in the city's North-East. This is an area of Liberal strength, and, an area that I've been making noise about for quite some time. Eventually, a few months ago, I gave up trying to talk the talk and decided to walk the walk, donating $5 every month to the Federal Liberal riding association for Calgary North-East. This riding is winnable and Nenshi's showing only proves that.

Ward 14, as expected, was Nenshi's second worst Ward. What is unexpected, though, is that the worst Ward was not #12, but rather, #10 in the east. I admit that I do not know as much about this municipal race as I'd like to, and, there may be local factors (I don't for example, know where Jon Lord lives) but it seems to be that Ward 10 may be an untapped resource for right-wing resentment that so far has limited itself to the southern areas in the City's south.
The city could theoretically be cut in half from where Wards 11 and 6 meet, across to the North and East, to where Wards 3 and 5 meet. North of this line is a more progressive Calgary while south of it is the conservative core. 

Below is the table showing the Ward-by-Ward breakdown of the Mayoral race. I also show weather a Councillor has been re-elected, defeated, or has not run again. As a bonus, I've included info on if Nenshi managed to take more votes from a particular Ward than the elected Councillor did or not. Note that stats for Calgary indicate city-wide results.

I've also created a map showing if Nenshi did better than average (Blue) worse than average (Red) or took an average number of votes (Purple) per ward. This helps show the North-South divide in the city.

1 comment:

  1. If you are seeing this, it means the table has been updated, or, will be updated within the hour.