Wednesday, October 30, 2013

3-way tie for first and what is coming up

An Ipsos-Reid poll taken between the 16th and 28th of October (with a few days off for some reason) shows something that is rare in Federal politics

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/one-point-separates-liberals-tories-and-ndp-poll-1.1521349

A 3-way tie for first. This image from the CTV website explains it all.


We effectively have a e-way tie for first.

The NDP growth seems to be at the expense of the Green Party. If I had to venture a guess, it'd be that Greens are upset with the Tories and want to ensure they are defeated, so are willing to vote strategically for the NDP to see this happen.

While I have a strong feeling - and am pretty sure - this has happened before; I can't quickly and off-hand find another poll showing this; so relish this three way tie between the NDP, Liberals, and Conservatives while you can.

What is coming up?

On November 1st I will be releasing a new "Teddy's ElectoMatic" and federal maps. I'm mostly done and just need to (literally) plug in all the numbers. 

Following that, I will start a province-by-province examination of "what's going on" as well as other details. For example, the Newfoundland post will include the recent troubles of the NDP - a full history - as well as an election map in my usual style, and a provincial ElectoMatic for that province. I'm unsure where I will start, but will try to come up with something for a province if/when politics in that province are in the news (as Newfoundland is right now)

I hope to have this provincial series done by the end of the year; which will then have all provinces ready to go with maps and ElectosMatic for the 2014. 

5 comments:

  1. Surely the main reason for the sharp NDP rise is not the decline of the Greens but Tom Mulcair's magificent performance in the Commons.

    EKOS released a poll this week showing that Mulcair has vaulted into the lead as preferred Prime Minister.

    As John Ibbitson writes in the Globe:

    "If the Ekos job approval numbers are a leading indicator, the Senate expenses scandal, as well as damaging the Conservatives, might also signal the end of the Liberal honeymoon and the beginning of a renaissance for the NDP.
    If so, Mr. Mulcair will have earned it. He’s the best politician in the House of Commons, right now, by a country mile."

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  2. In September 1931 the Liberals and PCs were tied for second behind the CCF.

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    1. For some reason I think this happened again in the 80's and again in a small poll with a high error margin within the last few years.

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  3. Peter, job approval numbers are very different from preferred PM numbers. In all cases where the question is who would make best PM the actual numbers are generally half for Mulcair as what they are for both Trudeau and Harper who are still in a neck and neck race.

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  4. Let's see if that changes. There has been lots of praise in the press for Mulcair's recent performance and lots of comment about how weak Trudeau looks in comparison. I'd like to see the two of them in a one-on-one debate to see who really has the chops but I suspect that is the last thing Justin's handlers would want.

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