Saturday, September 21, 2013

More international election fun!

Tis the season it seems for international elections. Tomorrow Germans across the country go to the polls. Last week, in the german state of Bavaria, the CSU managed to regain the majority they've held for most of the past generation or two. Austria goes to the polls in about a week (Frank Stronach, father of Belinda, is running at 10% in the polls). Ireland has a referendum on abolishing their Senate at the start of October, and at the end of that month, The Czechs go to the polls. Argentina goes at about the same time too. Chilie goes the following month, though, I admit my lack of understanding of politics in Latin America make it unknown if I'll cover both of those. In May, the EU votes, as does Belgium, and next September, Sweden votes. Sometime before that, India votes. This may be an interesting election as two recent polls show the Communist led alliance leading. Lastly is Portugal, where every party has a left-sounding name, and the Socialists and Social Democrats are fighting over government.

But, back to Tomorrow and Today. Let's start with an update on Australia, as, they are still counting, and, will probably still be counting to the Irish election.

A few House seats are flipping one way or another. Palmer is in danger. Labor looks set for 55 seats while the Coalition is sitting on 90. In the Senate the most notable change, so far, is that Palmer looks to have lost a seat in Tasmania (though is nearly guaranteed a win in Queensland) to the Sex Party. How this plays out remains to be seen. When I do an update for Ireland, I will update the massive graphical table.

In Germany, there are a few things to take note of.

The CDU is the main conservative party in the country. It runs in every state, except, Bavaria. In Bavaria, the CSU runs. Like in Australia, these two conservative parties are locked into a permanent coalition, and the media often treats the two as one. I will be doing the same.

The SPD is the main Socialist opposition. It's headed governments in the past, and, along with the CDU, is one of only two parties to do so.

The FPD is the "Liberal" party - though note we are talking Neo-Liberal mostly. This party usually sits in alliance with the CDU.

The Greens are, well, Green. They usually sit in alliance with the SPD. Recent moves by Greens worldwide to be less, well, crazy, have resulted in the German Greens moving closer to the positions espoused by the Canadian party for years.

Lastly is the AfD, a right-wing anti-euro party. Note this is not an anti-EU party, they are just anti-euro. The party has taken great pains to try to keep right-wing extremists out of the party, but, some still manage to find their way in. Some say the party itself is right-extremist, but I've not seen any evidence of that. Due to their stance on the Euro, dealings with the CDU would be difficult.


There are a number of possible results. I've detailed them below:





= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Traditional Minus
The "usual suspects" pass the threshold, nobody else does.
The CDU/CSU does not manage those few extra votes.

CD/SU - 264
FDP - 33
GOVT - 297
SPD - 181
Grn - 60
Linke - 60
AfD - 0

Conclusion: Somewhat unstable, perhaps a Grand Coalition.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Traditional Plus
The "usual suspects" pass the threshold, nobody else does.
The CDU/CSU does manage those few extra votes.

CD/SU - 268
FDP - 33
GOVT - 301
SPD - 177
Grn - 60
Linke - 60
AfD - 0

Conclusion: Govt re-elected with majority.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Unorthodox Minus
The FDP does not pass the threshold while AfD does.
The CDU/CSU does not manage those few extra votes.

CD/SU - 264
FDP - 0
GOVT - 264
SPD - 181
Grn - 60
Linke - 60
AfD - 33

Conclusion: Terribly unstable. Likely another election in a year or less. (Unless AfD and CDU come to a deal) [Don't see SPD coalitioning in this case] My Guess here is the SPD would smell blood and force another election purposely. Possible, if they are weak, to settle for some sort of SPD lead coalition.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Unorthodox Plus
The FDP does not pass the threshold while AfD does.
The CDU/CSU does manage those few extra votes.

CD/SU - 268
FDP - 0
GOVT - 268
SPD - 177
Grn - 60
Linke - 60
AfD - 33

Conclusion: Mostly stable, likely a CDU minority for 2 years or so.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Additional
Both AfD and the FDP manage to pass the threshold.
Extra CDU votes are thus pointless.

CD/SU - 252
FDP - 31
GOVT - 283
SPD - 170
Grn - 57
Linke - 57
AfD - 31

Conclusion: Grand coalition likely. Relatively stable.

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

Subtractional
Both AfD and the FDP do not pass the threshold.
Extra CDU votes are thus pointless.

CD/SU - 282
FDP - 0
GOVT - 282
SPD - 190
Grn - 63
Linke - 63
AfD - 0

Conclusion: Possible Red-Red-Green

= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
= = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = = =

3 comments:

  1. Note - if I forgot to say - 299 is the majority marker in Germany.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Portuguese Social Democrats are a centre-right party despite their name. About Germany, I think a minority government is very unlikely and it would probably be the first time. Even in regional assemblies, parties almost always try to form a majority government. Also, government instability would be detrimental to the whole euro-zone. German politicians interfere in the political affairs of other countries requesting for government stability. They should set others a good example! A red-red-green majority though arithmetically possible, could be difficult considering the positions towards the Euro within the most radical factions of Die Linke.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Portugal: Indeed. Of the 5 parties expected to do well, one is the Green-Communists, and the other is the Left Bloc. Only the People's Party have a name usually associated with right-of-centre politics.

      Germany: I think eurozone instability would make AfD, and those you mentioned in Die Linke rather happy. I only really think we'd see terrible instability if the FDP does not get in, AfD does, and AfD + CDU/CSU does not equal a majority. IMO the SPD would say to itself "hey, the FDP has been knocked out" and think if they want to be a part of a grand coalition or not, and, conclude they do not want to wear the problems of the government.

      Delete