Saturday, September 7, 2013

Australian Election Results

Teddy here with a graphic full of numbers showing the result of the election.

For those who do not like Numbers as much as I do, I'll explain.

In short, and as expected, the conservative Coalition lead by Tony Abbott won the election with a majority. Most pundits on both sides had come down where my own projection was just a few days ago, saying as the election began, that they expected Labor with 50 seats. As the election drew on however, that did not turn out to be the case.

Comparing the final results to my projection, we see a few areas of difference. For one, Labour was stronger all across the country than I had anticipated, winning an extra seat or two in every State, but the real area of strength was in New South Wales, and in particular, in the areas around Sydney. For Canadians, I liken this area to the 905. Australia's 905 did not turn against Rudd as I and many others had expected them to.

What is surprising is where some of the larger swings came from and where they did not.

1 - Efficiency. Labor was able to retain a larger share of their own seats than would be expected based on math alone. The electorate, it seems, was a bit more polarized than in the past, with many Labor voters in rural seats totally abandoning the party. The result of this was Labor holding on to seats that may not have been expected with the noted vote share.

2 - Tasmania. and New South Wales. With a massive swing, Tasmania looks set to elect 3 conservatives to the House, while an expected massive swing in NSW did not materialize, and this saved a large number of Labor seats.

3 - Queensland and Victoria. The switching from a Victoria to a Queensland PM was expected by all to make much more of an impact. While the Queensland swing was small, 1.4%, and the Victoria swing larger, 5.1%, the swings were expected to be much further apart. Both Territories saw a smaller swing and Tasmania and SA both saw larger swings.

The story of the night however has to be the success of Palmer's United Party; an entity I mentioned way back in my first post here about the country. The PUP has managed to outperform KAP, by far, in every state, and looks set to win possibly 2 Senate seats (in Queensland and Tasmania) Palmer himself seems set to win his seat, but with a preferential ballot such as Australia uses, final counts wont be available for a little while yet.

Also of interest is the hold for the WA Nationals of their only seat. The WA branch, as noted in the above linked post, are not officially part of the coalition. What this MP does now that the Coalition is in government (and do not need his vote) may prove to be quite interesting as the Nationals, nominally a single federally-united party, have never been in this situation before.

With counting still ongoing, how the final results will fall remain to be seen, but save a few minor changes, the above table should stand.


  1. Replies
    1. That was my question too, and the answer is no - they lost the Senate to the Coalition, though its a "minority" Senate.

      Semi-final numbers are 33 L/NP, 25 ALP, 10 Greens, 8 Others

    2. Most of these "other" Senators seem to be from centre-right parties. The conservatives will be able to get their things though.

    3. I think the "Motoring Enthusiast Party" should prove to be an interesting contribution to the new senate.

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