Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Rudd, BC Premier's Seat, and other things.

Teddy here with an update on some seemingly random information.


We have had 4 national polls since Rudd took over Labor's leadership. I will average them VS the average for the 4 polls previous of his takeover.

The 2PP (two party prefered) is when pollsters ask directly for voters to pick between the two main parties. Since Australia uses a preferential ballot, this usually ends up to be the final round, and gives a picture of which party is ahead.

Prior to the takeover, the Coalition had a 12 point lead. Since then that lead has dropped to a single point.

In the base vote, votes for "Others" have dropped from 13% to 10%, while the Green vote a slight up-tick, increasing from 9% to 10% (Rudd is seen as more centrist and moderate than Gillard). More significant is that the Coalition's vote has dropped from 47% to 43%, and Labor's has increased from 32% to 37%

The above in table format:

32-37 LAB
47-43 COA
09-10 GRN
13-10 OTH
44-49 LAB
56-51 COA

In the last 5 polls, Gillard VS Abbott stood at 39% vs 45%, with Abbott leading, while our single Rudd VS Abbott poll has Rudd smashing him 49% to 35%.

Abbott's satisfied-disatisfied rating has remained stable, sitting at a net negative of 21. Gillard had a negative of 27. Rudd sits at 0.

-27/+-0 LAB
-21/-21 COA

+14 - the margin Rudd beats Abbott for "Better PM"
-06 - the margin Gillard had (losting) to Abbott for "Better PM"

One of the 4 recent polls had a Labor lead in 2PP, the first time since December 2012, when a poll by the same company had Labor ahead. The last time a different company had them ahead was March of 2011, and that was the only poll since the last election to have that result.

British Columbia:

Now that the Legislature is sitting we can see a few interesting things from their Seating Plan.

First of all, the Premier's chair (IE, the one directly across from the opposition leader) has not been left vacant. The Deputy Premier is sitting here. Secondly, the Green MLA, Andrew Weaver is being recognized as an "Independent". Compare this to the Federal seating plan, where May is a Green member.


For anyone wondering, the current party standings in the Senate is as follows:
60 - CPC
35 - LIB
7 - IND*
3 - VAC

One of the Independents is a "Progressive Conservative" member, one appointed by Paul Martin. Since the party did not maintain the 5 members needed for status, it is no longer official. In order to gain status back, it would need 5 members, and, to have been officially registered at the time of the last election. (I personally called the Senate to ask about party status the day Martin appointed that PC Senator.)

In the House, with all the changes, party standings have moved since the last election. Counting Toews and Rae, the party standings are as follows:
164 - CPC
100 - NDP
34 - LIB
7 - IND (4 BQ - 1 GRN - 2 IND)
3 - VAC

The Vacancies are from Quebec (Coderre), Ontario, and Manitoba.

Other Provinces:
Since the last election, one PC MLA from Alberta has become an Independent.

In Newfoundland, the Liberals won a recent by-election, and regained their 6 seats over the NDP's 5. There is an Independent in the legislature too (former PC). There had been some thought that if the NDP had won the by-election he could move to another party; perhaps with the NDP (giving them 7, and the clear right to official opposition) or to the Liberals (6-6 tie, Liberals would remain). With the Liberal win, this is no longer an issue.

In Nova Scotia, the disgraced Independent has resigned his seat. If I understand the case right - and I may be wrong here - he pleaded guilty to what was a charge of using his office for personal profit? Not 100% on that so please don't sue! Anyway, he resigned after finding out doing so would result in him getting more money.

In Ontario there are currently 5 vacancies in the Legislature. The results of the by-elections (supposedly to be held August 1st) will not change much in functional terms. There are not enough seats available for the NDP to overtake the PC Party, for the PC Party to overtake the Liberals, or for the Liberals to gain a majority.

In terms of Leadership, the Manitoba Liberals are holding a leadership race to end this October. Does not appear to be any candidates yet.

The Saskatchewan Liberals are also holding a leadership, to conclude in November. The requirements for this race are simple. $2,000, and, you must be 18 or older, a Canadian citizen, be a "Saskatchewan Resident" and have lived in Saskatchewan on February 2nd of this year (the 6 month requirement). You must also take out a membership in the party.

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