Friday, July 19, 2013

Are the Trudeau Liberals Crashing and Burning In the Polls?

The short answer is, well, yes.

The long answer is yes, but not necessarily to the immediate benefit of the main opposition to the Liberals - the Conservatives and New Democrats.

While I find the recent hyper-ventilation over one EKOS poll by the media to be a tad stupid, there is no doubt that following the recent trends in federal polls since May, the Liberals have tumbled down from their formerly high perch - a fact that I will note should have been expected by everyone.

*-Abacus included don't knows, unlike others
The above line graph shows the 11 federal polls taken since the beginning of May, and you can see there is a clear downward trend for the Party. While we've led in every poll since, the leads have been getting smaller and smaller, and not because of any major rejuvenation in the fortunes of the Conservatives or NDP, which you can see as well. They have a slight trend upwards, but its mostly been the minor parties - the Bloc, Greens, and Others - that have seen jumps in their support in polls, specifically in polls where the Liberals are down extremely low, such as the recent Ekos poll (17.8%), the Abacus poll (18%), and Ekos' May 26 poll (18.1%). All other pollsters have the minor parties total below 15%, which means that in Ekos and Abacus, the Liberal totals could be down anywhere between 2-5% on the back of their particular house effects (i.e., Ekos always given the Greens a higher total than anyone else on a consistent basis). That is just speculation, however.

As I said, this shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone. Justin's honeymoon was bound to end eventually, plus its summer and people aren't exactly worried about politics. The lack of a big increase in support for either the NDP or Conservatives is also noteworthy, as the lost Liberal support was probably a protest vote looking for someone to latch onto. These respondents clearly aren't seeing any alternative in the other two parties either.

My prediction is that by the time September comes, we'll have settled into a three-way race between all the parties. It'll require some major news or event before any party breaks out of that pattern. Which means that once we enter into that trend, it may be a long time until we break out of it.

3 comments:

  1. There was a while there when it looked like we may have a possible Liberal government with an NDP opposition. (Around the June 23rd Abacus poll). Having the Conservatives propelled to third party status after early this year news articles declared that Harper had fundamentally changed Canadian politics would be pretty funny.

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  2. It's a nice sensationalist headline you have, worthy of a Sun News website. Are they declining from a high, by definition almost. Are they "crashing and burning"? You have no way to know that right now.

    The headline compliments nicely a graph that I'd expect from a global warming denier website, where the graph is conveniently cropped only to show the downward trend.

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    1. While I don't disagree about my headline (though in fairness, I had it changed but Blogger messed it up and it reverted back to this one), I don't really care. I'm a blogger with a sarcastic streak, not an accredited media source.

      But the graph? It is "cropped" to show a downward trend in as much as I "cropped" it from May 2013. The point is to SHOW the downward trend since May. I don't know how you can draw a comparison here.

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