Sunday, June 9, 2013

Re: 130 seats

Warren Kinsella wants people to name 130 seats where the Liberals can win, in order to get on that stepping stone towards a majority. I have decided to name them below, generally from West to East. Pay attention now.

West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, Delta, North Vancouver, Surrey Centre, Surrey Newton, Vancouver Centre, Vancouver Granville, Vancouver Quadra, Vancouver South, Edmonton Centre, Calgary Skyview, Regina-Wascana, Saint Bonifice-Saint Vital, Winnipeg North, Winnipeg South, Winnipeg South Centre, Yukon, Nunavut, Kenora, Nipissing-Timiskaming, Sault Ste. Marie, Thunder Bay-Rainy River, Guelph, Haldimand-Norfolk, Kitchener Centre, Kitchener-Conestoga, Waterloo, London North Centre, London West,  Beaches-East York, Davenport, Don Valley East, Don Valley North, Don Valley West, Eglinton-Lawrence, Etobicoke Centre, Etobicoke-Lakeshore, Etobicoke North, Parkdale-High Park, Scarborough-Agincourt, Scarborough Centre, Scarborough East, Scarborough-Rouge, Scarborough Southwest, Scarborough-Wexford, Spadina-Fort York, St. Paul's, Toronto Centre, University-Rosedale, Willowdale, York Centre, York South-Weston, York West, Ajax, Ancaster, Aurora-Richmond Hill, Brampton Centre, Brampton East, Brampton North, Brampton South, Brampton West, Burlington, King-Vaughan, Markham-Stouffville, Markham-Thornhill, Markham-Unionville, Milton, Mississauga Centre, Mississauga East-Cooksville, Missisauga-Erin Mills, Mississauga North, Mississauga South, Mississauga West-Streetsville, Newmarket-Aurora, Oakville North-Burlington, Oakville South, Pickering-Uxbridge, Richmond Hill, St. Catharines, Vaughan-Woodbridge, Glengarry-Prescott-Russell, Kanata-Carleton, Kingston and the Islands, Nepean, Ottawa-Orléans, Ottawa South, Ottawa-Vanier, Ottawa West-Nepean, Peterborough...

(breath)

... Ahuntsic-Cartierville, Alfred-Pellan, Bourassa, Brossard-Saint-Lambert, Dorval-Lachine, Honoré-Mercier, Lac-Saint-Louis, LaSalle-Verdun, Laval-Les Îles, LeMoyne, Mont-Royal, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce-Westmount, Outremont, Papineau, Pierrefonds-Dollard, Saint-Laurent, Saint-Léonard-Villeray, Ville-Marie, Vimy, Louis-Hébert, Argenteuil-Le Petite-Nation, Hull-Aylmer, Pontiac, Brome-Mississquoi, Avignon-Matane, Gaspésie-Les Îles, Beauséjour, Madawaska-Restigouche, Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe, Cape Breton-Canso, Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, Halifax, Halifax West, Kings-Hants, Sydney-Victoria, West Nova, Cardigan, Malpeque, Charlottetown, Egmont, Avalon, Bay d'Espor-Central-Notre Dame, Bonavista-Burin-Trinity, Labrador, Long Range Mountains, Saint John's South-Mount Pearl.

Phew. That is at least 130 ridings, plus a few more. Where did I get those numbers? I just plugged in our regional numbers from the 2004 election, where we won a minority government (with changes to Quebec for obvious, orange-tinted reasons) into my projection system. This was based off the 2011 numbers too, so the swings are from those numbers, and doesn't even take into account ridings like Victoria or Sudbury, where we traditionally do very well when we are on an upswing.

That was easy. Do I get a prize or anything?

14 comments:

  1. Could you release the electomatic projection models to the public?

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    1. Its not mine to release, its Teddy's, my co-blogger. I'm sure he would love to.

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    2. Maybe I'll send him an email.

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    3. The ElectoMatic was made public under some sort of GNU licence years ago, at least, the version I used.

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  2. You win the delusional Liberal award of the month.

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  3. I'd add Richmond before i'd add Delta. Richmond might be heavily Conservative at the moment, but I suspect that that is more of an ethnic community-effect. If that bloc swings, it's gonna swing

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    1. The redistributed Delta took in parts of Sukh Dhaliwal's former riding, and a big block of Liberal voters, hence why it shows up in the swing before Richmond. But yes, I'd tend to agree, though to note, Delta nowhas a big Indian population, so I suspect that it would swing as well, especially if the rest of Surrey does.

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  4. lol, but I beg to differ on Victoria. The Greens are odds on (well, slightly better than even odds in my book) favourites to double their seat count with Victoria to go with SGI in 2015.

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    1. Hm, I'd give it to the NDP to be honest. I know the Greens will focus like a laser there but they still fell behind in the provincial election in the parts of Victoria that matter. Oak Bay and region won't be enough to put them over the top. But, its a definite possibility.

      I just think the Liberals also have some residual support here that backed Savoie after Anderson left. If we had the right candidate or a big swing in BC, I can see Victoria bypassing both orange and green for a nice shiny coat of red.

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    2. Yeah, in the absence of some big pre-writ spending I would say you are correct. I bet that Elizabeth May will pluck some damned Nobel Laureate or such from her rolodex for a candidate, and pop $six figures in pre-writ into the mix though. Pure speculation at this point, but the promise of a sure thing for a real star candidate would turn the modelling on its head. It will not be meaningful for the general election results, but you will see that the GPC will desperately need something to point to when their vote share collapses across the country in 2015. The easiest thing for them is to win a couple more seats, and that is within their grasp. Idle speculation, but fun to indulge in, lol

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  5. You have misread Kinsella's post. He said the Liberals need to gain 130 seats, you have counted the 34 they currenlty hold. Name 130 ridings they can gain.
    As a BC resident I think you are sadly mistaken that the Liberals can pickup Richmond & North Vancouver. The CPC won Richmond by 40 point, North Van by 30. And any other gains you see in the West are more likely to go NDP over Liberal. Liberals are an endangered species in the West.

    http://www.editgrid.com/user/khutton/canadanewridings

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    1. Go here
      http://esm.ubc.ca/CA15/forecast.php
      Edit the cells for CPC, NDP, and BQ from 1.000 to 0.400
      Hit submit.
      Liberal win.
      Adjust numbers as needed for desired result.

      The truth is, the above is what the ElectoMatic does, only it does so automatically.

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    2. If you want a majority, try .3 for the CPC and .25 for the NDP and BQ.

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  6. The simple answer to this is "The Chretien Era Ridings". There are enough new ridings in the GTA to offset the growth in ridings elsewhere, plus consider we are polling at 35+ seats in Quebec, and at 1993 levels in the West.

    A large cache in Greater Vancouver, a few in Alberta (Edmonton/Calgary), a few in Winnipeg, the 2004 Ontario ridings, 35 in Quebec (see forecaster post above for which 35) and a good chunk from the Atlantic = Majority.

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