Monday, June 10, 2013

And in the Provinces

Teddy here. You may remember a post I made Saying there was, then, was not an election in Nova Scotia.

All signs are that the government is readying for an election. When? I can not say, but it is rare for parties to call summer elections, and, summer elections tend to be used only when a party is leading, not when they are - like the governing NDP - behind. I decided it was time to look at every province and see how things are.

Just had an election. No post-election polls are out yet.
Next Election: 2017 - May

Current polls match the pre-election polls before the last election. That is to say Wildrose is leading. We all know how that turned out.
No changes in the legislature yet, though, there is some talk that up to 3 PC MLAs may defect to the Liberals. There had been talk of PC MLAs defecting before, in particular, 3 of them to Wildrose; a year later, 2 did switch, so keep a long-term eye out for this.
Next Election: 2016 - June 1st

While the NDP has recovered from the last election, the Saskatchewan Party shows no sign of slowing down.
No changes in the legislature.
Next Election: 2015 - November 2nd *

Polls show the PC Party pulling ahead, with a new leader, they could win, however, polls show a close race.
No changes (to party standings) in the legislature.
Next Election: 2016 - April 19th * **

NEWFOUNDLAND (and Labrador)
The governing PC Party has lost it's kevlar status and has been polling in far more "normal" ranges for a government, in this case, near 40%. The problem is the NDP has been polling around that level too. The Liberals are having difficulty breaking 25%. If you want a more recent poll, which is a shocking change from this, check below.
One PC member now sits as an Independent, and one Liberal seat is now vacant. That vacant seat used to belong to Jones, and is expected to be held by the Liberals. The NDP, however, would overtake the Liberals as the official opposition should they take the riding.
Next Election: 2015 - October 13th *

The NDP is in trouble if the polls tell the truth, with the Liberals presenting a real challenge. The NS Liberals should not be under-estimated, at the turn of the century they held government for so long, that even the Alberta PC Party has yet to overtake them.
It has been a while since the last election, and there have been changes in the legislature. The Liberals have gained 2 seats, while the PC Party lost 3. There is also an Independent, who was formerly in the NDP, but the NDP managed to make up that loss. A Liberal MLA has also quit the legislature.
Next Election: 2013 - Fall [unspecified]

Polls show an interesting race shaping up, with the NDP managing to stay at or above 20%, potentially opening themselves up to 4 or so seats. The Liberals meanwhile have managed to edge out the Tories in a few polls.
Only one change of note in the legislature, that is the loss of a PC seat to an Independent due to a resignation. One interesting thing is the number of seats has been reduced from 55 to 49.
Next Election: 2014 - September 22nd

Polls say the Liberals would win if an election were held today, but the polls in Quebec are known for bouncing around more so than in other provinces; in addition, polls are not exactly seen as predictive at the moment.
The current legislature is the same as the one elected, no changes.
Next Election: 2014 - Spring? (Minority could fall at any time)

Polls show a close two way race between the Liberals and PC Party. The NDP, however, is close enough behind to possibly force another minority.
The current Legislature has seen changes. At this time, there are 51 Liberals, 36 Tories, and 18 New Democrats. There are 2 vacancies. The results of those by-elections will not be enough to result in a majority for any one party.
Next Election: 2014 - Spring? (Minority could fall at any time)

The PC Party nearly tore itself apart a while ago, and this shows in the polls. The Liberals lead the last poll at 51%, while the NDP was at 26%. The PC Party was way back at 16%, while the Greens were at 7%. This poll is now out of date, but still stands as very interesting.
No changes to the party standings in the legislature.
Next Election: 2015 - October *

The NWT last went to the polls in 2011, placing the next election sometime in 2015/2016. Nunavut, apparently, is having an election on October 28th of this year.
The "problem" is neither of those two have political parties making these elections very hard to cover. The Yukon, does have parties however, but, no reliable polls. The next election there is expected in 2015.
Next Election: Various (read above)

Federal commentary would take up a post of it's own. Until then, you can check the polls here:
The current House of Commons can be seen here: and the Senate here:
Next Election: 2015 - October 19th *

Note that Manitoba ** has a law that says in the event the provincial and federal elections are at the same time, the date of the provincial election would be moved. It is possible other provinces will also have similar laws as the date of the federal election nears.

So, what of the polls? There are new polls in the Atlantic. CRA does Atlantic polls, and they are very regular, doing polls quarterly. The problem is that CRA's accuracy has been questionable in the past - in part because they do not do late polls.

LIB - 52% 
PC - 22% 
NDP - 21% 

LIB - 41% 
PC - 29% 
NDP - 27% 

NDP - 37% 
LIB - 36% 
PC - 27% 

LIB - 45% 
PC - 26% 
NDP - 26% 

A few things.
First, note the NDP is above 20% in every province. Second, note the PC Party is below 30% in each province. This is likely due to federal trends, but federal politics does not always translate well into provincial politics, especially when the campaign gets going. What is good is seeing the Liberals above 35% in all provinces; at least, I think so.

No real "conclusions" to draw, this post is just an info dump really, but I'll examine each of those provinces before I close out.

The PC Party is still suffering problems. Despite edging out over the NDP, the leader's rating shows the seatless NDP leader with a higher approval than the PC Leader of the Opposition. With all PC Parties in trouble in the Atlantic, and, in fact, in every province save Manitoba, it may be difficult for the PC Party to get outside help. Experienced and skilled volunteers can matter more than money, and with the NDP doing well in every province, save Nova Scotia, and a bunch of people from BC with a need to prove they can do well, I suspect the NDP will have a much easier time finding outside help. Despite this small poll lead, the PC party may find itself unable to win seats at these levels. Frankly, given past history, the Liberals could sweep every riding with these numbers. Given the NDP's vote concentration, however, I suspect that if an election were called today, and, if the NDP did a good campaign, they could take at least 2 ridings, even if the Liberals take the remaining 25.

New Brunswick:
The NDP is not going away. Despite some tactical errors by it's leader, the party is very popular. The problem is that support is widespread. In short: Rural folks want to vote NDP. The problem is not enough of them exist to allow the NDP to win ridings. The NDP can easily win 4 ridings, both in Saint John and in the Northeast, and could manage a handful more in Saint John too. The NDP's vote, however, is inefficient, and they'd need a real focus in order to win a large number of seats. The PC Party, meanwhile, has somewhat of the opposite 'problem'. The seats they win, they *can* win by large margins. This depends, though, on the campaign. A campaign from the centre won't do this, but a right-wing campaign will win them a number of seats in the South and the West of the province.

The governing PC Party, the one that won with 70% not that long ago, is now in third place with a measly 26%. The NDP and Liberals are tied at 37% and 36% respectively. It is hard to imagine this situation only a few years ago. What is amazing is that the NDP, with their strongest team ever running the show, is tied with the Liberals, who do not have a permanent leader, and have a somewhat old and tired legislative team. Loyalty to the party is very high, and this will pay off at election time as people who dislike the NDP vote Liberal to oust the Tories. 

Nova Scotia
45% for the Liberals, and the PC Party and NDP tied at 26%. Seems the results of the next election are already clear. Of course, remember that this is not the only pre-election poll showing a huge lead for the opposition over the incumbent government. The PC Party has been unable to really break into the hearts and minds of the voting public. It is possible, perhaps even likely, that this will turn into a 2-party race. Should the Liberals lose, this will be a sign that incumbents have far more staying power than polls tell us.

1 comment:

  1. It's either a confusing tactic, and Dexter is trying to throw the media and/or his opponents off his trail
    or Dexter himself has been spooked by the recent poll and is backing off a planned fall election.