Saturday, May 4, 2013

Ipsos Reid BC Poll: 45% NDP, 35% BC Liberal

Likely to be the last in a string of polls we've seen come out this week (because of the debate, I guess? I dunno), Ipsos Reid has released its newest poll for British Columbia's election campaign, sort of confirming the broader trend of Liberals up, NDP down, though with a larger lead for the NDP than the others are showing.

Ipsos Reid (BC Provincial - April 30-May 2, 2013 - +/- 3.5%)
New Democratic: 45% (-3%) - 57 seats
BC Liberal Party: 35% (+6%) - 26 seats
Green Party: 10% (+1%)
BC Conservative: 7% (-4%)
Independents: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)

I didn't cover the last poll Ipsos Reid put out, but there has been some very obvious movement towards the Liberals since that release at the beginning of the campaign. Jumping up 6-points is nothing to scoff at, as it means the difference between the Liberals being completely decimated as a party, or ending up as a healthy opposition party.

The regionals are broadly similar to the other polls recently put out. In the Metro Vancouver region, the NDP lead with 47% to the Liberal's 39%, they also lead on Vancouver Island with 48% to 28% (and 18% Green), and also lead in the Interior with 41% to 32% Liberal, with the Conservatives rounding up third at 12%.

Speaking of, at 7% the Conservatives are barely making an impact, and is probably what they would've earned (or thereabouts) had they run a full slate in 2009. Their growth has been completely shut down, and I guarantee most of those former supporters have moved on to the Liberals.

There are some other things Ipsos talked about in their release, including the "firmness" of each party's votes. I won't go into detail right now, but in even worse news for the BC Conservatives as well as the Greens, almost just over a quarter of their voters say they're likely to change their votes before E-day, compared to just one-in-ten for either the Liberals or NDP.


  1. Kyle, the NDP is down 3 not 4, and the conservatives are down 4 and not up.

    1. Oh jeez, this is why I shouldn't rush posts before work. Thanks for the corrections, fixed.