Thursday, May 2, 2013

Harris-Decima Poll: 35% Liberal, 28% Con, 22% NDP

Harris-Decima has released its first post-Trudeau win poll for the federal scene, showing a big jump for the Liberals into first place ahead of both the government and the Official Opposition - not bad for the party recently written off as dead and done.

Harris-Decima (Federal - April 18-28, 2013 - +/- 2.2%)
Liberal Party: 35% (+11%) - 136 seats
Conservative: 28% (-6%) - 118 seats
New Democratic: 22% (-5%) - 61 seats
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 23% (-2%) - 22 seats
Green Party: 7% (=) - 1 seat

The last federal release for Harris-Decima was back in September 2012, so I can't really compare the seat totals (nevermind the fact that I didn't even cover it), but its fairly clear there has been some movement since that period, and given the other recent polls such as Forum, Nanos, or EKOS, we can pretty much tell when that movement occurred. While the 7-point lead isn't as impressive as Forum's majority-territory poll for us, this is still pretty damn impressive. Of course, the usual caveats apply, especially that we're still at least two years away from a general election.

Regionally, the Liberals lead in Ontario (38% to the Con's 34% and the NDP's 20%), Quebec (37% to the NDP's 24%), and Atlantic Canada (48% to the NDP's 27% and the Con's 22%). They also post impressive numbers in British Columbia, taking second place away from the Conservatives according to this poll (34% NDP to 30% Liberal and 22% Con). The Conservatives continue their stranglehold on Alberta (58%) and the Prairies (50%).

The Quebec numbers are what interest me the most, given that its usually only been Forum that gives the Liberals such a wide lead in la belle province. With Harris-Decima, we can at say that its possible Forum's numbers are not as far off as some would like to claim.

Anyways, I wanted to show my current rolling average for Canada, after I've added in this poll of course:

 The last few polls have definitely helped the Liberals return to a competitive state, this being their best numbers since I started following federal politics - that's all the way back to 2008. Its not just that we're seeing Liberal leads thanks to a post-leadership honeymoon, but that we've seen a fairly long and gradual build-up to the point where we're competing at the same level the Conservatives are. It may not last until 2015 - in fact, I'm sure it won't - but for right now, its clear that Canadians are looking for something different, and the Liberals are the main beneficiaries of that right now.

Amusingly as well, this result is almost parroting the odd result that came out of Quebec's recent election, right down to the position of the parties - the tired throwback party with a bare lead, the should-be-dead liberals second, the would-be agents of change in third, the small annoying sovereigntists in fourth, and then an extra party along for the ride.

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