Tuesday, May 14, 2013

Final Projection for BC: Likely NDP Majority

Today is E-Day in British Columbia, and its also the day that we'll see a turnover in that province's government after 12 years of BC Liberal rule.

Though they've put up a valiant fight over the last couple of weeks, evident by the rolling trend charts below, the BC Liberals led by Premier Christy Clark are probably not going to pull off an upset today. They remain too far behind the New Democrats led by Adrian Dix, even if you include the margin of error. They especially remain far behind the NDP in the most important region of the province, the Lower Mainland, where the NDP continue to power ahead by roughly 10% of the vote.

That being said, the Liberals have a good chance of remaining in a strong position within BC's Interior regions, where they could retain all of their incumbent seats from 2009. However, they could end up with zero seats on Vancouver Island, where the NDP are looking almost set to sweep all ridings.

I also expect at least one Independent to be elected, that being Vicki Huntington in Delta South. Arthur Hadland in Peace River North also has a good chance of winning over the BC Liberal's incumbent Pat Primm, though that is less certain than Huntington's chances of winning. I do not expect either Bob Simpson in Cariboo North, nor John Van Dongen in Abbotsford South, to win re-election as Independents. However, a big caveat as that we saw now riding-level polls to base trends on for any of these Independent candidates, and could only use the numbers we had from 2009, so an upset in any of those four ridings should not be unexpected.

I really do not expect to see either the BC Conservatives or the Green Party to win seats in this election. The Conservatives have dropped like a stone since the campaign began, and barely ran enough candidates (not to mention the ones they lost) to truly make their impact felt across the province. The Greens also had a problem running candidates in every riding, preferring to concentrate elsewhere - such as in Victoria. The one riding I could see going Green is Oak Bay-Gordon Head, where star candidate Andrew Weaver is running. However, based on the regional polling done, the Greens don't have enough support to win. Like with the Independents above, however, an upset in Oak Bay-Gordon Head is not unexpected. It is the only riding where the Greens actually have a shot at winning, however, as Jane Sterk will very much go down to defeat in Victoria-Beacon Hill.

If you're interested in seat-by-seat projections, check out my BC Projection page above.

Anyways, the election will be aired tonight and I'll be on Twitter, arguing with others about what the results may or may not mean. Here's hoping my numbers prove correct, as I put quite a lot of work into this projection. If it does end up with a strong positive result, I'll be all the more confident with the upcoming Nova Scotia election (and possible Ontario election as well).

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