Thursday, May 9, 2013

EKOS Poll: 38.6% Liberal, 26.2% Con, 23.9% NDP

EKOS Research has come out with a new poll that is sort of confirming the grander trend of amazing huge Liberal Party leads, this one being a bit larger than others Harris-Decima, Forum, or Ipsos, but still gets the point across that Trudeaumania 2.0 has hit Canada hard.

EKOS Research (Federal - April 30-May 2, 2013 - +/- 2.7%)
Liberal Party: 38.6% (+9.5%) - 155 seats (+47 seats)
Conservative: 26.2% (-2.6%) - 95 seats (-36 seats)
New Democratic: 23.9% (+0.6%) - 85 seats (+27 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 18.6% (-8.9%) - 2 seats (-37 seats)
Green Party: 6.3% (-2.7%) - 1 seat (=)
Others: 0.9% (-2.5%) - 0 seats (-1 seat)

Compared to EKOS' last release, the Liberals have jumped up nearly 10-points and are 15 seats short of a majority. Its a good poll for the continued Red, um, Tsunami?, though with a 12-point lead, you'd think we could do better.


Starting out West regionally, BC sees a... Liberal lead? Yep, according to this poll the Liberals lead in BC with 31.1% (up from 23% in the last poll), switching places with the Conservatives in third with only 22%, and the NDP sitting with 29.3%. The Greens also get an honourable mention at 16.8%, a number which would most definitely lead to more seats for them (just not on this projection).

In Alberta, the numbers are even wonkier, with the Conservatives at an extremely low 42.1%, with the Liberals second at 29.3% and the NDP sitting at 19.9%. According to the projection, the Liberals would win 7 seats, the NDP 3 seats, and the Conservatives 24. That is pretty insane, and I can't see it happening unless we see a total collapse of the Conservatives. I mean, even Reform managed better numbers in Alberta back in 1993 (52.3%), and that was the lowest a conservative party had managed to get in Alberta in generations!

The Conservatives lead in both Prairie provinces, the race in Manitoba is much tighter, with 41.4% Con to 38.3% Liberal.

In Ontario, the Liberals lead with 42.1% Liberal to the Conservative's 32.5%, with the NDP back at just-above-2008 levels with 19.2%. Under these numbers the Liberals would win 66 seats to the Conservative's 40.

The Liberals also lead in Quebec with 40.2% to the NDP's 30.7%, big increases for both parties (from 30.5% and 22.4% respectively), mainly at the expensive of the Bloc who take a big hit from the previous release. That higher NDP number is the main reason why the Liberals aren't in majority territory with this projection, as the NDP would win 40 seats in Quebec to the Liberal's 35. That's what you get for having an inefficient vote, as all the Liberal voters are concentrated in the Montreal area.

Finally, the Liberals dominate in Atlantic Canada with 50%, so not much to say there.

We're entering into our third week or so of Trudeaumania (if you count from the leadership race), and the honeymoon is showing no signs of abating. It will probably diminish over the summer as we enter into a slow news cycle (unless we go into an Ontario election!), but as always, we'll see.

6 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. Why is that lol-worthy, Michael?

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  2. Will Lawrence Martin be proven correct? http://www.ipolitics.ca/2013/05/08/if-trudeaus-numbers-hold-harper-wont-stay/
    Don't let the door hit you on the way out Steve.

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    Replies
    1. Haha, I hope he is. It would be a good time for him to go, too - before all these allegations catch up to him from several corners.

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  3. Red tsunami?

    I for one prefer to use the term 'Red Tide'

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  4. Looks like Robo-Harper will be a bad memory in Canadian history. The Conservatives will be reduced to ashes with their continuing senate scandals and recklessly spending taxpayers money to self-promote themselves. Don't forget we are looking pretty bad on the international stage with our estrangement from the U.N. thanks to Stevie boy. The Neo-Con artists have put this country on a slow train-wreck while most of us are fast asleep like Rip-Van Winkle. We'll be in for a rude-awakening once all the damage is done.

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