Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Can the BC Liberals win?

Teddy here to answer a simple question: can the BC Liberals win.

The answer, which might surprise some, is yes. A few things need to happen though to make this the case.

1 - The BC Liberals need to run a seamless campaign. Christy Clark's little voting mishap effectively breaks this, and that, and that alone, might be enough to prevent a win. In order for Clark to win she needs luck, and even the smallest of bad luck - like her events of earlier today - are enough to stop it.

2 - The BC NDP needs to make a few mis-steps. The NDP has decided to go negative, after committing to run a positive campaign, this could turn voters off. Probably not though. Unless these new ads backfire, I can't see the NDP making any election-costing mis-steps.

3 - Voters need to abandon the Conservatives and the Greens. There is already evidence this is happening. Remember that last summer the Conservatives were running neck and neck with the BC Liberals somewhere around 23% in the polls. Today, the Conservatives are getting closer to 9% while the BC Liberals are up at 35%. You'll notice these two do not perfectly match; this is because the Greens are also getting Liberal votes, and they too need to be knocked down a tad.


So CAN the BC Liberals win? Yes. There's enough of a chance that they can win that you'd probably be better off betting on it than you would be betting on a single number in roulette. People do the latter and think they can win - and some do win. Will they win? I highly doubt it. The best they could 'realistically' hope for is an effective tie... which brings me to the interesting part of this post.


I've run a few simulations and something came up that is very rare. Normally when parties tie in seat results, one has more votes. One party is just more efficient at turning votes into seats. Federally the NDP has always been bad at this, while the Conservatives have been good at it. Provincially, this is not the case, at least, not in BC.

The two parties could tie with each taking exactly 41.1% of the vote. This should be just about 690,000 votes each, if my turnout estimates are correct.

The two parties, at these levels, would win 42 seats, with 1 Independent elected.
map:

Needless to say this exact result is not likely.

More interesting would be a balance where the Greens and Conservatives each elect a single member, and the Liberals and NDP tie at 41-41.

2 comments:

  1. For Victoria-Times Colonist:

    Oracle Research:

    NDP - 41%
    Lib - 37%
    Green - 12%
    CPBC - 10%

    Undecided - 24%

    http://www.newseum.org/todaysfrontpages/hr.asp?fpVname=CAN_TC&ref_pge=gal&b_pge=1

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  2. A few corections on your post 1. the liberals have had more than enough bad luck, and most of their mistakes have been self inflicted e.g. kim haakstad alwowed into liberals fold again, quick wins, HST, and now proof that government time was spent on a by election in port moody. 2. b.c. races always tend to get titer as E day aproaches, see 308.com second in the last election the Cons took 2% vs. the greens took 8% even the LOWEST Con number 7% would mean a -5% drop for libs. thus spilting the right and as BC history shows granting the NDP government. so CAN the liberals win, Yes and Satan could have a baby with Snooki. that doesn't mean anybody believes it Will happen.

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