Wednesday, May 1, 2013

BC Projection (Teddy)

Teddy here with a final but personal projection.


The BC Liberals will finish with 23 seats. This is the core of the projection. I've made projections like this before for BC and both previous times they have been shockingly on the mark. What took time is trying to figure out what those 23 seats will be.

The above map displays where I feel those 23 seats are. This would give the BC Liberals a good distribution of seats throughout the province.

The Greens, from this projection, will not take any seats. While I do feel they will have respectable results in some ridings, I do not foresee them actually managing to snatch any of them away from the NDP.

The Conservatives should manage to place a strong second in a number of ridings. The problem, however, is the Conservative campaign is a province-wide campaign, when they should really have focused their resources on a few seats. Cummins, saying in the debate he wanted to win the election, is an example of the mindset that will cause this. Sitting at 15% in the polls, this strategy of theirs could net them a dozen seats, but where they are - at 9% - is not a place where this kind of strategy can work for a party with the organizational problems that they have.

The only new addition, therefore, will be a new Independent. Arthur Hadland, from the North. He ran last time, and managed 30% of the vote. It is here that the "province-wide" Conservative campaign will make an impact, but not for the local Conservative candidate, for Hadland, who is running on many of the same issues.

The NDP will be able to take the remainder of the ridings. I suspect that after all is said and done, people will do the math and show how a dozen or so ridings could have been won by the Liberals if the vote on the right had not been split. I doubt it will end up as enough to have overturned the election, but it would have been enough to take such a large number of ridings, that will will look back at this election and say "if only the right had been united"

This misses the point.

People want to get rid of the sitting government. They have decided they do not like it. Sure not everyone thinks this way - or the Liberals would not win a single seat - but there is a large enough mass, probably 10%-15% of voters in every riding, who feel this way, and as swing voters, their decision is the one that will stick. This has nothing to do with splitting the right-wing vote and everything to do with a desire for change. A real split vote occurs when people can not decide what kind of change they want.

They know what they want. Premier Adrian Dix.



EDIT - 11th of May
I've made a more final "final" projection that has only 1 change:

7 comments:

  1. Yeah, if I were to do a by-the-guts projection, this basically what I'd come up with.

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    1. May have to update this final projection :P
      Greens keep gaining on Vancouver Island.

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    2. Hm, I don't know - yes, they're gaining on the Island, but the NDP are also sweeping it at the same time. I can't see the Greens winning any seats, beyond the possibility of Oak Bay-Gordon Head with their star candidate, but Weaver's the exception, not the rule.

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  2. it couldn't be put better teddy

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  3. Note I'm updating this to include a green seat in oak bay. a second map will be added to this post as well.

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  4. Note I'm updating this to include a green seat in oak bay. a second map will be added to this post as well.

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  5. The NDP will win Vancouver-False Creek and North Vancouver-Lonsdale. I also think the Greens have a much better chance in Oak bay than they do in Saanich North - the latter will go NDP. I think the Liberals will retain more seats in the interior - esp. Nechako Lakes, Kamloops South and one of the PGs.

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