Those polls have pretty much confirmed that the BC Liberals and Premier Clark are catching up to Adrian Dix's NDP, though the question that remains is whether not its enough. Despite catching up with leaps and bounds, the Liberals remain behind the NDP in every poll.
My projection's average shows the NDP still leading the Liberals by about 10%, mostly because of the continued NDP lead and the lack of candidates available to Conservative and Green voters in all 85 ridings in the province (which, naturally, will bring down their numbers and boost the NDP and Liberal numbers). Despite that big gap, this is much better than the 16-point gap the Liberals faced at the beginning of the campaign. The Liberals are in the position to cause an upset - but I think it may not be enough.
I say this because, despite a closing gap in most of the province, the BC Liberals are struggling to close the gap in the Metro Vancouver/Lower Mainland region.
|Polling of the Lower Mainland/Metro Vancouver region since April 24|
The Lower Mainland is retaining a strong orange streak, and one can even make the argument that the gap has increased. That is bad news for the Liberals, given that 47 of the province's 85 ridings are located in this region, so in order for the Liberals to win government they're required to make big wins here. In 2009, the Liberals won the region by nearly 7% over the NDP, winning 29 seats overall. Under my projection, with these numbers, they'll likely win between 13 to 20. Unless they can take back that lead in the Lower Mainland, the NDP will likely win government - there is simply not enough seats available to the Liberals in the Interior and North (because you know they're not going to win many on Vancouver Island) to retain their incumbency.
Can they leapfrog the NDP? Possibly, but these numbers have been pretty consistent even as the Liberals rise everywhere else. Given that much of the Liberal rise is probably due to Conservatives and undecided anti-NDPers coming home, and that most of those people are out in the Interior, I can't see it happening. We'll know after the weekend whether I'm wrong.