Friday, May 10, 2013

BC Liberals Close the Gap, but Is It Enough?

There have been three polls released in BC recently, which unfortunately I didn't get a chance to cover (I've been busy with other things, ranging from Twitter suspending my account for an unknown reason to finishing up my special project you'll all know about this weekend), one from Ipsos Reid, Oraclepoll, and Hill & Knowlton each. All show increasingly close races, as does a new Forum Research poll for BC that I currently don't have the details for but will cover when they come out.

Those polls have pretty much confirmed that the BC Liberals and Premier Clark are catching up to Adrian Dix's NDP, though the question that remains is whether not its enough. Despite catching up with leaps and bounds, the Liberals remain behind the NDP in every poll.

My projection's average shows the NDP still leading the Liberals by about 10%, mostly because of the continued NDP lead and the lack of candidates available to Conservative and Green voters in all 85 ridings in the province (which, naturally, will bring down their numbers and boost the NDP and Liberal numbers). Despite that big gap, this is much better than the 16-point gap the Liberals faced at the beginning of the campaign. The Liberals are in the position to cause an upset - but I think it may not be enough.

I say this because, despite a closing gap in most of the province, the BC Liberals are struggling to close the gap in the Metro Vancouver/Lower Mainland region.

Polling of the Lower Mainland/Metro Vancouver region since April 24

The Lower Mainland is retaining a strong orange streak, and one can even make the argument that the gap has increased. That is bad news for the Liberals, given that 47 of the province's 85 ridings are located in this region, so in order for the Liberals to win government they're required to make big wins here. In 2009, the Liberals won the region by nearly 7% over the NDP, winning 29 seats overall. Under my projection, with these numbers, they'll likely win between 13 to 20. Unless they can take back that lead in the Lower Mainland, the NDP will likely win government - there is simply not enough seats available to the Liberals in the Interior and North (because you know they're not going to win many on Vancouver Island) to retain their incumbency.

Can they leapfrog the NDP? Possibly, but these numbers have been pretty consistent even as the Liberals rise everywhere else. Given that much of the Liberal rise is probably due to Conservatives and undecided anti-NDPers coming home, and that most of those people are out in the Interior, I can't see it happening. We'll know after the weekend whether I'm wrong.



  2. Kyle, why does it say that your twitter account has been suspended?

    1. Oh, no idea - that's the thing. They never sent me an email saying it was suspended, nor did they warn me of any infractions that my account committed. I only found out when I logged on and it had that notice. Been a couple of days almost, still waiting on Twitter to get back to me. Its either a mistake, or a spammer got on my account, I can't see it being someone reporting me for anything, but I guess I'll find out once they get back to me.

    2. Would you like me to add posts automatically to my account?

  3. The gap will bounce back on E-Day. Too many undecideds without a reason to support the BCLibs. Similar to the Alberta situation but in reverse, in Alberta there was too much discomfort with Wildrose, whereas here the discomfort is with the Liberals.