Friday, May 3, 2013

Angus Reid BC Poll: 41% NDP, 34% BC Liberal

With yesterday's releases from Forum and InsightsWest, we saw the beginning of a much closer race in BC's election campaign, and it seems its followed after the April 29th debate. Now the province's most frequent pollster, Angus Reid, has come out with a corroborating poll that shows this mini-surge just got real, son.

Angus Reid (BC Provincial - May 1-2, 2013 - +/- 3.5%)
New Democratic: 41% (-4%) - 50 seats (-11 seats)
BC Liberal Party: 34% (+3%) - 32 seats (+11 seats)
BC Conservative: 10% (-1%) - 1 seat (=)
Green Party: 12% (+2%) - 0 seats
Independents: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)

Compared to their release from a week and a half ago, Angus Reid is showing some clear momentum for the Liberals and a drop for the NDP. At 41%, that is the lowest the NDP have been in an AR poll since January 2012!! While the changes are just about within the margin of error, one has to say that AR is more or less confirming the trend, meaning we really are going to have an interesting final stretch.

Regionally, the NDP lead in Metro Vancouver (45% to 35%, larger than the lead in Forum/InsightsWest, but not that different), on Vancouver Island (44% to 28% Liberal and 21% Green, almost exactly in line with the other two), and in the North (52% to 31% Liberal). The Liberals lead in the Interior with 42% to 29% NDP, somewhat similar to the numbers Forum showed (though their Interior is lumped in with the North). The Conservatives best numbers also come from the Interior (14%), but their seat is in the Fraser Valley region.

AR also gives us a clue as to why the surge may be happening, with their polling on "who is best able to handle " notably showing Clark regaining a lead on the economy question, 31% to 25% for Adrian Dix (previously it was 29-27 in favour of Dix). Clark leads on no other issue except for federal/provincial relations, including a big deficit on health care and education - yet that doesn't matter, given that the economy is seen by 33% of respondents as the most important issue, followed by health care at 18%.

And while Clark is still on the negative side with her approval/disapproval rating (34/57), so now is Adrian Dix, who drops to 41/47, from a previous 45/43.

Momentum is on Christy Clark's side right now, but the question is whether she has enough time, and whether or not she can capitalize upon it. I suppose we'll find out.

Eleven days to go, folks.

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