Friday, May 24, 2013

About That Recent Forum Poll...



I may have found something that should flag it as a possible problem.

The recent Forum poll that came out has a huge Liberal lead of 44% to 27% for the Conservatives, a lead far greater than the 2000 election results for Jean Chretien over the Canadian Alliance. Its good news for Liberals, and that kind of lead would be understandable given the recent scandals that have hit the Cons. The NDP sit far back at 20%, probably really wishing Jack Layton was still with us and they weren't stuck with this apparent loser.

But, before everyone says how cool this is, I just saw the Alberta regional numbers. And... well, look:

Erm... the Liberals at 42% in Alberta? Yeah, I have some serious doubts about that.

But that brings up an interesting possibility. What if that was real? Here's what my projections came up with:


Very, very interesting. While I think both Edmonton Griesbach and Edmonton Strathcona would flip in the event of this kind of Liberal tide (though, who knows where all those former NDPers would go), its pretty clear that the Liberals would practically sweep both Edmonton and Calgary, in the addition to Lethbridge and Medicine Hat in the south. That would be quite the amazing feat, if it was possible.

However, it is very probably not possible. Not in my, or your, lifetime. Just not happening, not without a miracle. But its nice to dream.

10 comments:

  1. Oh please God, make it so and I will be rid of that alleged CON crook in Calgary NE.

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  2. I'm sorry to say it, but Kyle is so wrong. It is quite possible the Liberals are at 42% in Alberta. How/Why? Remember that undecided voters never get counted, so I do not think this is a case of "the 20th poll". Note as well the NDP is at 5% in the province, when they've traditionally lead the opposition vote in the province over the past decade. Remember too in addition that in the last provincial election, a large number of provincial PC voters were small l liberal and small s-d social democrats.

    Lets take the last provincial poll. If you cut the NDP vote in half and apply it to the Liberals, you end up with the Liberals at 24 and the NDP at 7. Wildrose is sitting at 37. The PC Party is sitting at 29. If you split the vote 1/3rds VS 2/3rds towards the Liberals, you pretty much get our federal result here.

    So how could the Liberals be taking 2/3rds of the provincial PC vote? Well the answer to that is simple as well; Trudeau. He's popular.

    What people fail to recognize is what people failed to recognize in the BC election, where 85% of people told the pollster they were "very likely" to cast a ballot - that is that they don't know what they are talking about, and I suspect a large number of Liberals polled are the same. These are people who don't usually vote - and in Alberta there is a lot of them - who think that Trudeau is kind of neat.

    In the end I think that while the poll is "accurate" to it's own standards, and scientific, that the "real" result - if an election were held right now - would have a different split.

    What the poll tells us VS what I think things really are is as follows:

    C - 46% - 51%
    L - 42% - 32%
    N - 5% - 10%
    G - 6% - 6%

    Which is a result that we have indeed seen before during the Chretien era.

    This is not due to some kind of math that I say this, but due to my gut. Given what happens in BC, I think it shows that a strong gut can be more important than the math.

    My gut tells me if an election were held right now, the results would be as follows:

    BC
    C - 35%
    L - 32%
    N - 24%
    G - 8%

    AB
    C - 51%
    L - 32%
    N - 10%
    G - 6%

    PR
    C - 39%
    L - 32%
    N - 23%
    G - 4%

    ON
    C - 31%
    L - 43%
    N - 22%
    G - 6%

    QC
    C - 11%
    L - 43%
    N - 26%
    G - 2%
    B - 17%

    AT
    C - 26%
    L - 47%
    N - 21%
    G - 3%

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    Replies
    1. Erm, not to nitpick but Forum was one of the poll that messed up in regards to "what happened in BC." Trusting their numbers represent an accurate count now while mentioning that at the same time is a little silly, don't you think?

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    2. Actually, I kind of agree with Ted, but approaching from the opposite direction, specifically, How is it that the Liberals Could be polling so high in Alberta. The answers are Pro-Life, Fiscal Prudence, Senate Scandal, Advertising Spending... I do not think that the actual vote would go this way if there was an actual election tomorrow, but I can certainly believe that the above issues, all breaking at roughly the same time are toxic for the Conservative relationship with their so called base. Especially pro-life and Senate scandal. I could easily see Albertans answering a pollsters questions with their knickers in a twist already. Some damned thing is going on with the CPC right now. We are seeing the edges of whatever motion is affot within the ranks, with all those leaks from the Senate, Moore making a shiny new campaign website, carefully not-too-silent whispers of splits and divisions. More open criticism of Harper from caucus and various CPC quarters. The Alberta CPC seems to be very nervous and agitated

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    3. @Kyle, Gallup was the one who called Dewey defeating Truman, then went on to accurately poll for dozens of presidential elections.

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    4. I'd like to see some stats on how many easterners have had to take up residency in Alberta in the last few years. Maybe Harpers economic favoritism to Alta. may come back to bite him. Quite a few of them may be closet Liberals who can see that his ideology doesn't make sense...especially to their relatives back home.

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  3. Isn't one of those Calgary seats the... um... Prime Minister of Canada?

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    Replies
    1. Nah, he escapes being turfed, his seat under the new redistribution is *likely* Calgary Heritage, which is the southwestern-most one, kinda looks like a backwards L.

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    2. He'll resign first to go work for a Chinese state oil co.

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  4. They should have a voter registration drive among all the Newfies in the tar sands. Might spice things up a bit

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