Thursday, May 2, 2013

Abacus Federal BC Poll

You may remember that a couple of days ago Abacus Data released their first poll for British Columbia's provincial politics, showing what everyone else has been showing. It appears that they went into the field (maybe even with the same respondents) for BC's federal politics as well, showing, again, what everyone else is showing, that being something of a three-way race between the Cons, NDP, and Liberals.

Abacus Data (BC Federal - April 23-26, 2013 - +/- 3.1%)
Conservative: 34% (+2%) - 18 seats (+4 seats)
New Democratic: 31% (-5%) - 16 seats (-3 seats)
Liberal Party: 27% (+1%) - 7 seats (-1 seat)
Green Party: 8% (+1%) - 1 seat (=)

The above results are compared to the last federal poll's Abacus put out BC regional. However, I would dare to say that this is more accurate, both due to the higher sample size (835 decided voters in this one, compared to 181 in the last federal poll), and due to the fact that we had sub-regional numbers.

Speaking of, you may be surprised to learn that most of the Conservative's lead in this poll is down to a lead in the Metro Vancouver area, where they sit at 36% to 29% each for the Liberals and NDP. In the "rest of BC" smattering that I calculated, the NDP actually lead, 34% to 31% Con, 24% Liberal, and 11% Green. That lead is based off the NDP's lead on Vancouver Island (41% to 21% Con), and a smaller lead for the Cons in the Interior (36% to 29% NDP), and a small sample in in the North (though the Cons won that with 44%).

If this were the case in an election, most of the NDP's 16 seats would come from outside of Metro Vancouver, while most of the Conservative's would be based around the suburbs. Very different from the 2011 election.


  1. similar to Ed broadbent in 88

    1. Exactly. At least in this poll, the NDP are taking over those somewhat vulnerable Interior ridings, as well as sweeping Vancouver Island - just like Broadbent did. I'm curious as to why the Conservatives have clung unto those ridings so well since '93 though, I mean they couldn't even be won in 2011!

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