Friday, April 19, 2013

Quick Reference Guide to the BC election

Teddy here with a quick reference guide to the election in British Columbia. First, some links that may be useful:

Media and other Info sources:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_2013
http://www.elections.bc.ca/ge2013/
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bcvotes2013/
http://bc.ctvnews.ca/election-2013
http://www.theprovince.com/news/bc-election/index.html
http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/

Our "Competition" for BC Election Projections:
http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/ (bilingual author)
http://www.threehundredeight.com/ (the big one)
http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/ (More focus on analysis, like here at Blunt Objects)
http://cdnelectionwatch.blogspot.ca/ (not active this election?)
http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/ (great source for maps)
http://www.electionprediction.org/2013_bc/index.php (Veteran of the field)

Political Parties:
http://www.bcliberals.com/
http://www.bcndp.ca/
http://www.bcconservative.ca/
http://www.greenparty.bc.ca/


I've examined, quickly, some of the ridings and have these thoughts:
BC Conservative leader, John Cummins, is running in one of the most right-wing areas of the province. He could win.
Paul Forsyth, a former MP, is also running for the BC Conservatives. His name could help him gain a few points, and this might be all that's needed to push him over the top as well.
The Greens could manage to take a seat or more in the Greater Victoria area; including the seat being contested by leader Jane Sterk.

And in general:
Polls have stabilized at about a 45 VS 30 level. This compares to 55 VS 20 in the 2001 landslide. In fact, you have to go back to 1972 to find a split electorate matching these margins. In that election the NDP won 38 seats to Social Credit's 10, while the Liberals took 5, and the PC Party took 2. Making adjustments for polling, modern politics, and additional seats, the 1972 election would suggest the following results: N57 L22 C2 G2 I2

And lastly, ridings that may be interesting to keep an eye on:
Peace River North
Cariboo North
Victoria-Beacon Hill
Oak Bay-Gordon Head
Vancouver-False Creek
Delta North
Abbotsford South
Langley

2 comments:

  1. "Paul Forsyth, a former MP, is also running for the BC Conservatives. His name could help him gain a few points, and this might be all that's needed to push him over the top as well."

    You do realize that he is running in New Westminster, an NDP stronghold where the NDP have won by wide margins in the last two elections and where the NDP got about 56% of the vote in 2009.

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    Replies
    1. That's why I said a few points. Compare to Heward Grafftey, who managed 4% running for a nobody party in 2006 based on his name.

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