Wednesday, April 24, 2013

PLQ leads in Quebec, Wildrosers lead in Alberta

Today is a double feature of polls from two corners of the country, one out in Alberta and the other in la belle province. The opposition in both provinces is leading the incumbent governments, mainly due to the pure ineptness of said incumbents.

Starting off in Quebec, sondage CROP has come out with a new poll of provincial (and federal) voting intentions in the province of Québec today, in association with La Presse newspapers across the province. Much like the previous Léger poll, CROP is showing a pretty big bump in favour of les libéraux after Phillipe Couillard's in March.

CROP (Québec Provincial - April 17-22, 2013)
Parti libéral: 38% (+7%) - 67 seats
Parti Québécois: 25% (-4%) - 39 seats
Coalition Avenir: 22% (-3%) - 14 seats
Québec solidaire: 11% (+1%) - 4 seats
Option nationale: 3% (n/a) - 1 seat

Unfortunately I haven't covered the last CROP polls, so I don't have much to compare it to except for the previously mentioned Léger numbers and CROP's own reported (yet unpublished) monthly tracking. The PLQ are leading by a much wider margin than in the Léger poll, and are seemingly in majority territory. The governing péquistes, who remain unpopular as always, are probably none to happy right now but we're still probably within Couillard's honeymoon period, meaning that when push comes to shove the Liberal leader may just not hold up to scrutiny. At least, that is what the péquistes (and Legault's caquistes) better hope for.

The only regional that I could find was for the Quebec City region, where there is a tight race between the CAQ (at 38%) and the Liberals (36%), with the péqsuites far behind. That is relatively good news for Legault, whose party can at least depend on that old adéquiste base despite not living up to their potential seen during their early months.

Those federal numbers I mentioned showed the federal Liberals under Trudeau leading 38% to the NDP's 30% and the Bloc's paltry 18%. That would give us round about 33 seats to the NDP's 39, mostly due to our rather clustered voters in the Montréal region. That being said, according to CROP the Liberals lead in the Quebec City area as well (though by a much smaller margin), so go figure.

Onward to the West...

Léger Marketing (Alberta Provincial - April 9-12, 2013 - +/- 3.1%)
Wildrose Party: 37.3% (+9.3%) - 57 seats (+43 seats)
Prog. Conservative: 28.5% (-11.5%) - 12 seats (-50 seats)
Alberta Liberal: 16.7% (+4.7%) - 12 seats (+7 seats)
New Democratic: 13.7% (+0.7%) - 6 seats (=)
Other: 3.8%

Compared to their last release in Alberta back in January, there has been a major shift among respondents. The Wildrosers lead in almost every region, except in Edmonton where they're tied for first with the PCs. It is very similar to last month's ThinkHQ poll, except the PCs come off somewhat better here.

In the regionals, Edmonton is a close race with the Wildrosers and Tories at 27% a piece, with the Liberals sitting high at 23% and the NDP at 20%. In Calgary, the Wildrosers lead with 37% to the PC's 30% and the Liberal's 17%, while the "rest of Alberta" features a much stronger Wildroser lead, 48% to 29% PC.

All in all, it isn't a good sign for the Redford government. They have been bumbling through several scandals as of late,with people turning against Redford's premiership pretty damn quickly. Luckily for them, there is ample time to turn things around as the next election isn't due for another three years at least.

And yes, I know, the polls were wrong before in Alberta, so there is the possibility that this is just another blip - yet practically everyone is noting how bad of a performance the Redford Tories are putting into governance. Its a shame, really, but its what you get for putting your trust into Conservatives. Sigh.

On the bright side, the Alberta Liberals seem to be doing better than normal (normal since 2012, anyways). Probably due to protest votes, however. If only there was a way to capitalize upon that dissatisfaction...

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