Friday, April 12, 2013

Nanos Research Poll: 35.4% Liberal, 31.3% Con, 23.6% NDP

On the flip side of today's earlier Abacus poll, a company known to give the Conservatives and NDP something of a boost, we have Nanos Research, known to sometimes give the Liberals a boost, putting out one of their monthly polls showing, well, a big Liberal boost.

Nanos Research (Federal - April 4-8, 2013 - +/- 3.1%)
Conservative: 31.3% (-0.2%) - 133 seats (+6 seats)
Liberal Party: 35.4% (+6.3%) - 121 seats (+16 seats)
New Democratic: 23.6% (-3.6%) - 81 seats (-21 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 19.2% (-2.0%) - 2 seats (-1 seat)
Green Party: 4.2% (-1.7%) - 1 seat (=)

Nanos' last release showed a close race between the Conservatives and Liberals, and given the momentum we've seen it was only a matter of time until we saw these kinds of numbers. A four-point lead may not seem like much, but to have two polls show it at roughly the same time is another frame-worthy moment for us Liberals who managed to stick around since the 2011 disaster. It actually confirms that we're not simply seeing an aberration, the one in the 19 out of 20 that we should always be worried about. That is definitely good news.

Oddly, however, the Liberals don't have a lead in the seat count based on these numbers. This is mainly due to Quebec, where Nanos pegs us at 34% to the NDP's 31.5%. In Forum's recent poll, it was 37-24, a much bigger lead and a much lower number for the NDP. Stronger numbers for the Conservatives in BC (37.5% to the Liberal's 31%) and an extremely tight race in Ontario (37.6% Liberal to 36.9% Conservative) also play into how we end up with that odd seat count.

Not much else to say, except that I hope this is a trend that holds. Our race will be coming to an end this week, and the exposure Justin Trudeau and the party itself has gotten will be gone shortly thereafter. The question is whether or not Trudeau (or whoever wins, unlikely as it seems at this point) can keep us in the spotlight, or we need to wait another two years for people to pay attention to us again. Can Trudeaumania even last that long? All questions to be answered, I suppose.

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