Saturday, April 27, 2013

More on Quebec

Teddy here with some expansion on an earlier post about Quebec.

The poll taken, as outlined in that article, had Federal and Provincial questions asked. Since the poll used the same respondents, and, produced results in identical regions, we can create this data from it:

I should note as a disclaimer; the QS and NDP have no official relation, and, the parties, in fact, have very different histories, and, in some cases, radically different policies. Moreover, the CPC and CAQ are most certainly not related to one another. I have simply grouped them together this way for ease of understanding when comparing parties on the right VS left of the spectrum.

Regardless, we can see a few interesting things. What I note is the following:

1 - The PLQ is doing far better than the federal party at attracting non-francophone voters. This is in part not because of any failure on our part as a federal party, but rather because of the success of the Tories and NDP in gaining these voters. The NDP, however, suffers a huge setback here; a category in which they lead for a good year after the 2011 election, falling to 1/3rd of our expected vote share.

2 - The NDP vote on the Island of Montreal is rather interesting. It would seem, using some rough math, that the NDP vote is coming from all of the QS vote, plus half the PQ vote. This math does not seem to hold or apply in any other area of the province, but within Montreal itself, it seems that it is these voters who back the NDP.

3 - NDP support in the Corona (think of it as Montreal's answer to the 905) is better compared not to the QS vote, but to the CAQ vote. This may be coming less from a "I am a right/left-wing voter" sentiment, and more from a "I want change" sentiment. Note that this also applies, to a lesser degree, in the Rest of Quebec as well.

Other things do pop out, such as that voters in Metro Quebec (City) are right-wing, but, this is not really of interest as it has been known for years now.


What does this mean Federally? As far as I can figure, it means this:
This map comes with disclaimers, but the point is made: our vote would return to it's former inefficiency.

The NDP is able to win more seats here despite the Liberals having the larger share of the vote. This is based partly on the NDP's "even-across-the-board" showing in 2011 (on which the math is based) and partly on our huge lead among non-francophones, who, sadly are concentrated in only a few ridings.

2 comments:

  1. `The poll taken, as outlined in that article, had Federal and Provincial questions asked. Since the poll used the same respondents, and, produced results in identical regions, we can create this data from it:`
    Hmm, don`t you think that this is poor methodology. I would think that some, even many of the respoondants will conflate the LPQ and LPC.

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    Replies
    1. It's simply a comparison of where the federal VS provincial parties stand, and not a statement on the accuracy of inaccuracy of the poll.

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