Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Manitoba Poll: 42% PC, 35% NDP, 15% Liberal



We haven't really taken a look at Manitoba recently, in fact not since the 2011 election (which, just to remind folks about, my projections did fairly well on), but a recently released Probe Research poll has stirred my interest in whats going on in the only other province I've visited in any meaningful way.

Probe Research (Manitoba Provincial - April 2-14, 2013 - +/- 3.1%)
Prog. Conservative: 42% (-1%) - 27 seats
New Democratic: 35% (-4%) - 27 seats
Manitoba Liberal: 15% (+4%) - 3 seats
Others (Green Party?): 8% (+1%)

Compared to Probe's last release in December 2012, the governing NDP continue to slip in support while the PCs, under new leader Brian Pallister, remain relatively steady. The provincial Liberals, who hold only one seat and whose leader, Jon Gerrard, will be retiring soon, manage to jump up to a healthy (for them) 15%.

Probe is nice enough to split the results into Winnipeg and, er, "non-Winnipeg" numbers. In the capital, the PCs are tied with the NDP at 37% a piece, with the Liberals back at 15%. Compare that to the 2011 results in Winnipeg, which were 51% NDP, 36% PC, and 10% Liberal. The Greens may or may not also be up in numbers, given that "Others" are at 10% in the city, but those numbers weren't broken down. If the Greens were at 10% in Winnipeg, they'd win the riding of Wolseley, but we can't assume that unfortunately.

In the rest of Manitoba, the PCs lead with 51% to the NDP's 32%, while the Liberals sit at 14%. That number for the Liberals is a 10% jump over their 2011 result, a really good number for them. Lets hope that is a sign of things to come.

If this were the result in an election, the Liberals would be the kingmaker in the Legislative Assembly, giving them the most power they've had in years. But of course, it all depends on what their next leader is like. Jon Gerrard has waged a tireless campaign for years as Liberal leader, and whoever replaces him will have their work cut out for them.

Anyways, here's a map I lifted and modified from I believe Earl Washburn, or possibly G L'Hermine, one of the two.

5 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. Oh, well he`s good at it. I just find them on Washburn`s site or World Elections.

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    2. You never compliment my maps *grumble grumble* I always put tags (numbers) in the ridings so you know what they are.

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    3. I don't use your maps as often! I should more, to be honest, yours are excellent, especially the maps of older federal elections.

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