Tuesday, April 9, 2013

#LPCLdr Turnout hits +40%

As this wonderful CBC article tells us, and we can see for ourselves on the Liberal's splash page for the leadership, around 40% of the 127K registered voters have come out to vote for the next leader of the Liberal Party.

For comparative purposes, we're very likely to beat the NDP's total of 65,108 of 128K voters (50.7%), as we're only 11,000 behind right now and we still have four days to go before the vote. We may even beat the Conservative's total of 97K, but that is much less likely.

Some interesting tidbits so far:

- 48.7% of all that have votes so far from Ontario; 46.8% of all registered voters are also from Ontario
- Quebec has the highest turnout so far with 47.4% of registered voters in that province
- Nunavut has the lowest turnout at 27.6%; of the provinces, Alberta is lowest at 37.6%
- Ontario, despite contributing between 45-50% of voters so far, will only have 34.4% of the points; yet, when combined with Quebec's 10-12% of overall voters, it comes to 55-62% in "Central Canada," which represents 58% of possible points

Fun. The general trend we've seen so far also indicates that for Joyce Murray to win, she'll need to sweep the West and get a very strong result in Ontario, somewhere in the 40-50% range. I say this because I doubt she has strong numbers coming out of either Quebec (because she has poor French and those people aren't keen on signing up with our sometimes-federalist pals in the NDP) or Atlantic Canada (where you're Liberal or not Liberal, there is rarely an inbetween). This is something of a tall order, but if Murray does pull an absolutely amazing upset, that is her path - West + Ontario, ironically the same strategy Harper used to build his own electoral coalition.

1 comment:

  1. I projected (a while ago) a turnout of 57%
    More than that will make me happy.

    ReplyDelete