Thursday, April 4, 2013

Labrador By-Election Poll: Yvonne Jones Wins All

Forum Research just released a new poll they did in the riding of Labrador for the upcoming by-election. Its not even close, not even close.

Forum Research (Labrador - March 30-April 2, 2013 - +/- 6%)
Liberal Yvonne Jones - 57% (+18%)
NDP Harry Borlase - 21% (+1%)
Conservative Peter Penashue - 20% (-19%)

Wow. Once again, bye-bye Peter. That's an impressive lead, and while the caveat about riding polls is still there, this will help boost Liberal morale in the riding and across the country. I can't wait for this fight to go down.

If Trudeau was leader, Jones' totals would go up to 63%, to 21% for Borlase and 16% for Penashue. So, really, we're looking good either way, and Justin will have a nice narrative going into his first year as Leader. By-elections are always good for that.

 Is there time to turn it around for Penashue or Borlase? Yes, there is. The by-election has yet to be called, and there is time to wear down Jones' lead. This back and forth between Jones and Penashue is fascinating as well, so we should see an entertaining fight.

But right now, by all accounts, Labrador will be a nice new sheen of red in no time at all.

7 comments:

  1. this is a poll in a by-election in labrador. I don't put alot of stock in polls in general but A poll in an area of such low pop. in a by-election, why don't you look at animal entrails instead?

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    1. I would but the entrails don't have as good a record as Forum does.

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    2. there is no substitute for being on the ground in by elections for example a year ago in B.C. there was a by election in Chilliwack Hope if you were to visit the hope area you would have noticed NDP oragne signs, if you were to visit Promontary you would see Liberal red but in the farmland between chilliwack and hope you would have seen more conservative signs. the point being real life provides a better idea of what's going on IMHO

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  2. I suppose we could go back to that old traditional reading, however the Harper Cons are too busy throwing them to let anyone to read them...

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  3. I can't see how a pollster can legitimately do polling here. I know even in provincial elections parties can't get any accurate results in Labrador, and that's when it broken into 4 districts. I wouldn't be surprised to see Yvonne do this well, but Forum doesn't give any information on regional breakdowns.

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    1. Well, even in a larger district you need to always guard yourself with these riding-level polls. I'm not saying its predictive, just that this is there findings and they're an excellent narrative for Jones' campaign come May 13th.

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  4. Who cares what the polls say? Penashue is going to lose no matter what.
    Vote for the candidate you want to see win.

    Tom Mulcair for PM!

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