Forum Research just released a new poll they did in the riding of Labrador for the upcoming by-election. Its not even close, not even close.
Forum Research (Labrador - March 30-April 2, 2013 - +/- 6%)
Liberal Yvonne Jones - 57% (+18%)
NDP Harry Borlase - 21% (+1%)
Conservative Peter Penashue - 20% (-19%)
Wow. Once again, bye-bye Peter. That's an impressive lead, and while the caveat about riding polls is still there, this will help boost Liberal morale in the riding and across the country. I can't wait for this fight to go down.
If Trudeau was leader, Jones' totals would go up to 63%, to 21% for Borlase and 16% for Penashue. So, really, we're looking good either way, and Justin will have a nice narrative going into his first year as Leader. By-elections are always good for that.
Is there time to turn it around for Penashue or Borlase? Yes, there is. The by-election has yet to be called, and there is time to wear down Jones' lead. This back and forth between Jones and Penashue is fascinating as well, so we should see an entertaining fight.
But right now, by all accounts, Labrador will be a nice new sheen of red in no time at all.