Wednesday, April 24, 2013

Ipsos Reid Ontario Poll: 37% PC, 29% NDP, 28% Liberal

Ipsos Reid has come out with their very first provincial poll for Ontario since the 2011 election, showing some interesting numbers that, at first glance, go against the trend but in reality may just be in line with everyone else...

Ipsos-Reid (Ontario Provincial - April 12-17, 2013 - +/- 3.0%)
Prog. Conservative: 37% - 57 seats
New Democratic: 29% - 32 seats
Ontario Liberal Party: 28% - 18 seats
Other (Green Party?): 6%

Unfortunately there is no other Ipsos poll to compare it to, but as I mentioned before it is quite different when compared to other topline numbers we've seen, including EKOS' recent poll. While there is the possibility that Wynne and the Ontario Liberals collapsed in popularity in the two days separating these polls (I'd blame the gas plant for that), what is much more likely is that Ipsos' methodology has done something different than others that have recently come out.

I suspect that maybe that methodology has something to do with likely voters. Harken back to that EKOS poll and remember the curious "likely voter" model that they provided with the same poll. By applying that model, the topline numbers for EKOS became 38.2%, 27.2% NDP and 26.9% Liberal, very similar to the numbers we're seeing here. If so, then it speaks volumes about the major GOTV operation the Liberals (and the NDP) need to commit themselves to in order to counteract this apparent edge that the PCs have with likely voters.

Sadly, no regionals at this current moment in time (Ipsos hides behind a paywall), so take the above numbers with a slight grain of salt. That being said, sitting behind the NDP in the popular vote is not going to end up well for the governing Liberals.

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