Tuesday, April 9, 2013

InsightsWest BC Poll: 45% NDP, 28% BC Lib, 15% Green, 10% BC Con

A pollster by the name of InsightsWest, which is apparently a "progressive, Western-based" company that I've never heard of before, has come out with its seemingly first poll for provincial voting intentions in British Columbia. You can also check out another poll they put out that asks about popular conspiracy theories among BCers. I found it hilarious.

InsightsWest (BC Provincial - March 26-31, 2013 - +/- 3.4%)
New Democratic: 45% - 63 seats
BC Liberal Party: 28% - 17 seats
Green Party: 15% - 2 seats
BC Conservative: 10% - 1 seat
Independent: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)

I have nothing else from InsightsWest to compare it to, but the last Angus Reid poll out for BC had broadly similar numbers. The big exception is the huge numbers for the Green Party, who in this poll are at the high end of their support levels seen since the 2009 election.

Regionally, the NDP lead in Metro Vancouver (49% to 29% for the Liberals), Vancouver Island (43% to 22% for the Greens and 19% for the Liberals), and even in the "rest of BC," or the Interior/North (37% to 33% Liberal). The Conservatives do poorly in this poll, with their strongest numbers oddly on Vancouver Island (15%). Even so, their one seat still comes from the Interior.

The Green's two seats come from West Vancouver-Sea to Sky (35% to 31% Liberal) and... Vernon-Monashee (30% to 27% NDP)? Odd as it may seem that their second seat doesn't come from one of their better Vancouver Island ridings, at 16% in the "rest of BC" and with the other parties so low, they just barely eek out a win in Vernon-Monashee, their best riding in the region in 2009.

On Vancouver Island itself, the Greens come close to winning Esquimalt-Royal Roads and Victoria-Beacon Hill based on the 2009 results. Green Leader Jane Sterk will be running in Victoria-Beacon Hill, so those are good numbers for her, but not so good for their star candidate in Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Andrew Weaver, where this poll's numbers in my projection only gives them third place.

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