Wednesday, April 3, 2013

Forum Poll: 33% Liberal, 29% Cons- what, what the...

Okay, remember when I said we were expected Forum Research to come out with a new poll for the federal scene? Well, they did. And it should sweep every diehard Liberal off their feet.

Forum Research (Federal - April 2, 2013 - +/- 3%)
Liberal Party: 33% (+3%) - 128 seats (+25 seats)
Conservative: 29% (-2%) - 115 seats (-24 seats)
New Democratic: 25% (-2%) - 76 seats (-4 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 21% (-1%) - 17 seats (+2 seats)
Green Party: 6% (+1%) - 1 seat
Indepdents: 1 seat (André Arthur)

Well, okay, maybe I'm exaggerating a tad. The poll, while showing the first Liberal lead since the 2011 election in any topline (or non-hypothetical) numbers, is not as impressive as it seems. The difference is just outside the margin of error, and given that the last Forum poll showed only a 1% difference between the Conservatives and Liberals, this kind of variation was expected. Given that Leger also showed similar numbers, it was only a matter of time - if the numbers held - that the Liberals were shown to be leading.

But goddamn is it ever a glorious sight. Not only is it a lead that breaks us ahead of the pack, its one that shows we've taken from both the Conservatives and NDP in a big way. The Liberals gain a lead not just on the back of one of the other parties dropping, but from what is clearly disenfranchisement in both parties who now see the Liberals as the best and most awesome alternative ever.

Or, its the "one" in the 19 out of 20 that is bound to be wonky. I don't think so given the growing trend we've seen, but its a possibility. I won't be a spoil sport.

Regionally, the Liberal lead is built almost entirely in central Canada, where we lead 37% to 35% Conservative in Ontario (giving us 54 seats to 49 for the Cons), and 37% to 24% NDP (39 seats for us, to 17 seats each for the NDP and Bloc). We also lead in Atlantic Canada, 44% to 32% for the NDP and 18% Conservative - the third poll to show the Cons that low in this region, a fairly good number to confirm a trend, even in a small-sample region like the Atlantic. Bye-bye Peter Penashue, it was interesting to have you around for a bit.

The NDP lead in BC (34% to 31% Con and 24% Liberal) as well as in the Prairies (35% to 33% Con and 26% Liberal), while the Conservatives dominate with 65% in Alberta. So, despite being knocked down in Quebec and sitting at only 22% in Ontario, the NDP do have some saving graces in this poll. For the Conservatives, this is a first as I don't think I've ever seen them regulated to a lead in only one region before - even so, 35% in Ontario is a strong number for them, so they can settle with that.

Now, I would usually say this is all because of Trudeau and you'll see that his numbers are still awesome in a second, but an interesting thing to note is that Bob Rae, now that he's leaving, has gotten extremely popular. Rae's approval/disapproval has become a really good 40/28 split, while Harper sits at 31/61 and Mulcair is at 35/33. That means Rae has become both the most approved of and least disapproved of leader of a major party, according to this poll. I wonder if he wishes he'd have stayed on, now.

That has probably played into the jump we've seen in this poll, and even the previous polls. Despite what others have said, I think people generally like Bob Rae. Even in Ontario, his split was 45/28. Now that he's leaving, people are seeing a really good sign of him that you usually don't see during the mid point of a politician's career. I dare say this is probably the most popular Rae has ever been.

Anyways, on to the big reason why we're kicking ass in these polls as of late:

Forum Research (Federal - Trudeau as LPC Leader)
Liberal Party: 40% (+1%) - 161 seats (+4 seats)
Conservative: 28% (-4%) - 105 seats (-21 seats)
New Democratic: 21% (+1%) - 45 seats (+8 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 24% (+4%) - 25 seats (+9 seats)
Green Party: 4% (+1%) - 1 seat
Independent: 1 seat (André Arthur)

A big drop for the Conservatives in our hypothetical Trudeau polling has inched the Liberals closer to majority status in these projections, and given the regional margins of error I wouldn't be surprised if they were already there. At 40%, the Trudeau LPC lead is built, as usual, in Ontario (45%) and Quebec (41%). The Conservatives are sitting far being in Ontario (31%), a bad sign given that the key to Conservative victory is at least 35% in the most populous province (more or less). If you're interested in the rest of the regionals, give the poll a look.

Forum also did some "who do you think is best on " polling with Trudeau, Harper, and Mulcair - guess who Forum believes will win on April 14th.  On the question of who shares respondents values the best, Trudeau led with 28% saying that he shares Canadians values, compared to 24% for Harper and a very disappointing 19% for Mulcair. 22% said no one.

Just to kick Mulcair when he's down as well, only 56% of NDP respondents in this poll said he shares their values. Compare that with Harper (78% among Cons) or Trudeau (70% among Libs) and its a sad, sad thing to see.

The other important question asked was on the economy, and this is where we run into trouble. When asked who can handle the economy the best, 34% said it was Harper, 20% said it was Trudeau, and 12% said Mulcair. That will be an issue in the future.

Anyways, I'm off to go frame this poll. I'm not sure if we'll see anything like it again once the Conservative attack ads come out, so I figure now is as good a time as any. Also, Murray and the others are screwed if any of the Liberals voting in the coming week see this poll.

5 comments:

  1. polls such as this act as drug for partisans depending on who is up and who is down. a year ago Mulcair was up and it seemed the NDP could do no wrong this poll really isn't worth anything, I doubt anybody believes that the liberals will be at these levels a year from now. the polls betwenn april 2014- april 2015 i think will provide a better look at what to expect in election 2015

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    1. Sure, but the polls now are still somewhat important when discerning trends in public opinion. The ups and downs of inter-election polls give you an idea of what affects the public's voting intentios, and can give you an idea of what to expect come election time.

      I'm not saying they're useful for the average person, but for those interested in following these trends and seeing whats going on, they're the best we've got.

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  2. Well, this poll sure as hell says something about the potential for the Liberal Party. The real trick will be to consolidate these gains and stuuf Liberalist full of new supporters, donors, and volunteers!

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    1. I agree, 100%. This shows that the Liberal brand is far from dead - people are looking for an alternative, there is potential here for us, we just need to capitalize upon it.

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  3. I still don't understand how the populace got brainwashed into believing in Reagonomics...it just doesn't work. Corporate tax cuts are one of the least efficient stimuli to the economy and lead to income distribution inequality and eventually unrest. Corporate media is mostly to blame. It's not rocket science...you either cut overall government spending year over year (which only the Federal Liberals have ever done) and reduce taxes or increase spending and increase taxes. You can't do what the Conservatives under both Mulroney and Harper have done...cut taxes and increase overall spending. You don't get a dollar and ten cents back for every dollar you cut corporate taxes!
    We Liberals seem to be afraid to say we were the only good managers of money to cut overall spending because Conservatives bring up that we cut health transfers to the provinces as part of that package...but we neede to cut spending across the board. That the provinces didn't follow suit and cut health spending is not our faults (note Alberta's Conservative govenment at the time did follow suit though). We should attack this head on and be proud of our conservative money mgmt. and then attack Harpers spending. This is the only way to attract disgruntled Conservatives out of their fols.

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