The first post-Trudeau-win is out from Forum, a special case given that they usually don't release one in the middle of a month. This polls is, by the way, an absolute whopper - the Trudeau honeymoon is not only in effect, but its even better than the previous hypothetical polling seen before!
Forum Research (Federal - April 15, 2013 - +/- 2.0%)
Liberal Party: 43% (+10%) - 174 seats (+46 seats)
Conservative: 30% (+1%) - 123 seats (+8 seats)
New Democratic: 19% (-6%) - 35 seats (-41 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 18% (-3%) - 5 seats (-12 seats)
Green Party: 2% (-4%) - 0 seats (-1 seat)
Even the best hypothetical Trudeau poll didn't give us such a strong lead, and compared to our previous best under Forum for its topline numbers, this is a total blowout. A full Liberal majority government. Is it the 19 out of 20 we all dread, or is it a sign of the real impact Trudeaumania 2.0 is having on Canadians?
Regionally, the big Liberal leads come from Ontario (47% to 34% Conservative), Quebec (46% to 22% NDP), and Atlantic Canada (59% to 21% Conservative). We also tie with the Conservatives in the Prairies at 37% each, and score around 30% in both BC and Alberta, though we're behind the Conservatives. The NDP are third in every region except Quebec, even dropping in Ontario to just 16% despite them holding up relatively well in the most populous province previously. That 22% in Quebec is also an awful, awful number for them, winning only 11 seats to the Liberal's 56.
Forum also did some approval/disapproval polling, with Harper coming in at 32/59, Mulcair at 35/34, and Trudeau at 46/24.
These is good numbers, much more impressive than the bounces seen for Dion or Ignatieff after their wins, and about on par with the Martin bounce. The one thing to remember, however, is that we're of course two years away from an election, and this poll was done literally the day after Trudeau's big win. His honeymoon period will last for awhile, and it will be after that period that we'll get a true measure of the staying power of Justin's charisma. And of course, after the Conservative ads run their course.
But we're off to a good start, aren't we? The resolution is kind of fuzzy unfortunately, given the large size of the map, but here you go: