Tuesday, April 16, 2013

Forum Federal Poll: 43% Liberal, 30% Con, 19% NDP

The first post-Trudeau-win is out from Forum, a special case given that they usually don't release one in the middle of a month. This polls is, by the way, an absolute whopper - the Trudeau honeymoon is not only in effect, but its even better than the previous hypothetical polling seen before!

Forum Research (Federal - April 15, 2013 - +/- 2.0%)
Liberal Party: 43% (+10%) - 174 seats (+46 seats)
Conservative: 30% (+1%) - 123 seats (+8 seats)
New Democratic: 19% (-6%) - 35 seats (-41 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 18% (-3%) - 5 seats (-12 seats)
Green Party: 2% (-4%) - 0 seats (-1 seat)

Even the best hypothetical Trudeau poll didn't give us such a strong lead, and compared to our previous best under Forum for its topline numbers, this is a total blowout. A full Liberal majority government. Is it the 19 out of 20 we all dread, or is it a sign of the real impact Trudeaumania 2.0 is having on Canadians?

Regionally, the big Liberal leads come from Ontario (47% to 34% Conservative), Quebec (46% to 22% NDP), and Atlantic Canada (59% to 21% Conservative). We also tie with the Conservatives in the Prairies at 37% each, and score around 30% in both BC and Alberta, though we're behind the Conservatives. The NDP are third in every region except Quebec, even dropping in Ontario to just 16% despite them holding up relatively well in the most populous province previously. That 22% in Quebec is also an awful, awful number for them, winning only 11 seats to the Liberal's 56.

Forum also did some approval/disapproval polling, with Harper coming in at 32/59, Mulcair at 35/34, and Trudeau at 46/24.

These is good numbers, much more impressive than the bounces seen for Dion or Ignatieff after their wins, and about on par with the Martin bounce. The one thing to remember, however, is that we're of course two years away from an election, and this poll was done literally the day after Trudeau's big win. His honeymoon period will last for awhile, and it will be after that period that we'll get a true measure of the staying power of Justin's charisma. And of course, after the Conservative ads run their course.

But we're off to a good start, aren't we? The resolution is kind of fuzzy unfortunately, given the large size of the map, but here you go:


8 comments:

  1. Something doesn't look right about that map. Why would Vancouver Island turn blue?

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    1. Vancouver Island is a much closer race than you would think federally. The Conservatives actually tied with the NDP in terms of popular support in 2011, around 38-39% each. In this poll, the Conservatives dropped from 45.5% province-wide to 39%; the NDP dropped 32.5% to 25%. Significant drops for both parties, but the NDP technically lost more, hence the Conservatives retained more support in their ridings. Plus, vote split between Liberals and NDP definitely doesn't help the latter's support in their ridings.

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    2. but the greens should hold sanich gulf islands even at 2 percent with a candadate with may

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    3. If I remember the riding numbers correctly, it was a close race with something like 37% Con to 36% Lizzy May. TCTC if it were reality, but this was just a simple projection from a poll with a margin of error. The Greens also dropped 2% in BC, so that explains the drop for them.

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  2. There are those Calgary seats I've been telling everyone we need to win. I also think that a 35 seat NDP with 20% of it's seats from Quebec would be a much stronger NDP than one with 35 seats but none from Quebec.

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  3. I'd LOVE to see seats in Calgary. 39 years here and I've yet to vote for a victorious candidate when party labels are attached to a name.

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    1. Out of curiosity, do you have any idea why Can Stewart in Calgary Northeast did so well in 2011?

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    2. Because Calgary Northeast is a Liberal area.

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