Friday, April 12, 2013

EKOS Poll: 29.1% Liberal, 28.8% Con, 23.3% NDP

Just to prove that good news come in threes (or is that bad news?), Frank Graves' polling company EKOS Research has come out with a new poll that, again, sort-of conforms to the recent jump in support for the Liberals. The big difference of course is EKOS' odd numbers where everyone ends up under 30%, and the Greens jump up three times their average results.

EKOS Research (Federal - April 3-10, 2013 - +/- 1.6%)
Conservative: 28.8% (-0.5%) - 131 seats (-3 seats)
Liberal Party: 29.1% (+4.5%) - 108 seats (+15 seats)
New Democratic: 23.3% (-3.0%) - 58 seats (-17 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 27.5% (-1.7%) - 39 seats (+4 seats)
Green Party: 9.0% (-0.5%) - 1 seat (=)
Others: 3.4% - 1 seat (Lethbridge)

 EKOS last published poll also had some pretty odd numbers when compared to other pollsters, mostly due to the high numbers for both the Greens and "Others," who at 3.4% in this poll actually manage to win a seat in Alberta, that being Lethbridge and the winner seemingly being the Christian Heritage Party, who in 2011 won 3.6% in the riding. Always nice to see nutbars getting representation in Parliament.

Despite the wonky numbers, EKOS sample size is positively huge, with just under 3,700 decided respondents (4,568 when including undecideds). That almost three times the size of the earlier mentioned Nanos poll. That is the odd thing about EKOS of course; they're a known and trustworthy pollster, but their numbers are also sometimes so out of whack with what others are showing - though usually never the actual trend!

Regionally, its a bit of a mess. The Conservatives lead in Alberta (48.9%), the Prairies (around 38% overall, or 40.9% in Saskatchewan and 36.6% in Manitoba), and even Ontario (33.3%). The Liberals lead in Atlantic Canada, and come up close in Ontario (31.9%), but they also happen to lead in Québec according to EKOS, with 30.9%. The NDP far behind in almost every region, even in Quebec (22.4%), though they eek out a win versus the Conservatives in BC (31.1%).

In other news, my rolling projection for Canada at large has finally seen the Liberals usurp second place from the NDP. I know this differs from what others like show, but my averages stack up slower and are more conservative than his or others. I may start setting up a new page for a Canada-wide projection, but for now here is what I've got:


  1. This result would be VERY healthy for Canadian Democracy.

    BQ official status, and all 3 parties having seats in the 8 largest provinces.

  2. I'm starting to think that it was grand-strategically an excellent move to delay the leadership vote for two years after Michael Ignatieff resigned. Let the NDP grow stale in opposition before we challenge them