EKOS Research (Ontario Provincial - April 3-10, 2013 - +/- 3.0%)
Prog. Conservative: 31.7% (+3.2%) - 44 seats seats (+12 seats)
Ontario Liberal Party: 30.8% (-1.7%) - 39 seats (-10 seats)
New Democratic: 25.5% (-0.1%) - 23 seats (-2 seats)
Green Party: 9.7% (-0.4%) - 1 seat (=)
Compared to the last EKOS poll, the PCs have jumped up quite a bit, surpassing the Ontario Liberals in the popular vote -
The regional numbers show mostly what we had before with a few changes. The Liberals leading in Toronto (37.9% to 27.7% PC), a somewhat close race in the GTA suburbs (34.7% PC to 28.7% Liberal) where its the Liberals in second instead of the NDP.
In Southwestern Ontario, the PCs lead with 33.9% to 27.7% Liberal and 24.5% NDP, a somewhat odder sight given that its usually the NDP who are in second. In terms of our two vacant ridings, based on those SW Ontario numbers Windsor-Tecumseh is a tie between the Libs and NDP at 37% a piece, while the Liberals win London West with 41% to the NDP's 25%.
The one Green riding is Parry Sound-Muskoka, due to the Green's high numbers in northern Ontario (around 17%).
EKOS did a "likely voter" screen as well, and the news isn't as good for the Liberals. Under the likely voter numbers, the PCs would lead with 38.2% to the NDP's 27.2% and the Liberal's 26.9%. Now, a lot of what EKOS does here is drop non-voters from 2011 from their respondents list, which does present some problems (i.e., it doesn't necessarily take into account that non-voters may become voters due to, say, Wynne or Horwath's leadership, or whatever), especially considering 2011's non-voters were over 50% of the total, an exceptionally low number. However, there is a clear gap that one cannot ignore, and presents a serious problem for either party. If those numbers held up, we'd see the PCs win 62 seats to the NDP's 27 and the Liberal's 18.