Wednesday, April 17, 2013

UPDATED: EKOS Ontario Poll: 31.7% PC, 30.8% Lib, 25.5% NDP

EKOS Research, who have been doing a multitude of polling as of late (and whose survey poll I've joined, though we'll see if I'm ever asked about voting intentions), have put out a new poll for Ontario's provincial scene. This is their second post-Wynne win poll, with the government unfortunately taking a step back - sort of...

EKOS Research (Ontario Provincial - April 3-10, 2013 - +/- 3.0%)
Prog. Conservative: 31.7% (+3.2%) - 44 seats seats (+12 seats)
Ontario Liberal Party: 30.8% (-1.7%) - 39 seats (-10 seats)
New Democratic: 25.5% (-0.1%) - 23 seats (-2 seats)
Green Party: 9.7% (-0.4%) - 1 seat (=)

Compared to the last EKOS poll, the PCs have jumped up quite a bit, surpassing the Ontario Liberals in the popular vote - but not the seat count. However, there were no regionals with this EKOS poll!! Unlike that February poll, for some reason this one didn't include regionals, thus talk these seat numbers with a grain of salt. My projections are, after all, based mostly on regional numbers. However, I do feel pretty confident in these numbers. The lead in the seat count for the Liberals is mostly due to their overwhelming advantage in Toronto and most of the GTA. Frank Graves, who heads up EKOS, was kind enough to upload the regionals into the poll, so the above results are now not as wonky.

The regional numbers show mostly what we had before with a few changes. The Liberals leading in Toronto (37.9% to 27.7% PC), a somewhat close race in the GTA suburbs (34.7% PC to 28.7% Liberal) where its the Liberals in second instead of the NDP.

In Southwestern Ontario, the PCs lead with 33.9% to 27.7% Liberal and 24.5% NDP, a somewhat odder sight given that its usually the NDP who are in second. In terms of our two vacant ridings, based on those SW Ontario numbers Windsor-Tecumseh is a tie between the Libs and NDP at 37% a piece, while the Liberals win London West with 41% to the NDP's 25%.

The one Green riding is Parry Sound-Muskoka, due to the Green's high numbers in northern Ontario (around 17%).

Despite the lack of regionals, its fairly clear that the PCs have some momentum, though whether its related to the gas plants issue I can't be sure. It certainly isn't related to the recently released report from the AG, given that this poll was done in early April. The Liberals do manage to maintain their second place status, and despite the continuing strong numbers for the New Democrats, its clear they've taken a serious hit since Wynne became Premier that they've yet to really recover.

EKOS did a "likely voter" screen as well, and the news isn't as good for the Liberals. Under the likely voter numbers, the PCs would lead with 38.2% to the NDP's 27.2% and the Liberal's 26.9%. Now, a lot of what EKOS does here is drop non-voters from 2011 from their respondents list, which does present some problems (i.e., it doesn't necessarily take into account that non-voters may become voters due to, say, Wynne or Horwath's leadership, or whatever), especially considering 2011's non-voters were over 50% of the total, an exceptionally low number. However, there is a clear gap that one cannot ignore, and presents a serious problem for either party. If those numbers held up, we'd see the PCs win 62 seats to the NDP's 27 and the Liberal's 18.

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