Monday, April 15, 2013

EKOS BC Poll: 39.3% NDP, 27.3% BC Liberal, 16.2% Green

Today (though technically tomorrow) the campaign for British Columbia's next general election begins, with the governing BC Liberals releasing their platform in its entirety today - unlike either the Conservatives or the NDP. It should be an interesting document, given how impressive they're going to have to try and make it in order to attract back a few of those lost voters. However, what better way to start off the campaign with an EKOS poll!?

EKOS Research (BC Provincial - April 3-10, 2013 - +/- 3.2%)
New Democratic: 39.3% (+0.3%) - 59 seats (=)
BC Liberal Party: 27.3% (-0.4%) - 20 seats (=)
Green Party: 16.2% (+2.7%) - 3 seats (+2 seats)
BC Conservative: 13.4% (-1.2%) - 1 seat (-1 seat)
Independents: 2 seats (Huntington and Hadland)

There hasn't really been that much change since EKOS' last poll in the field, with most of the movement going to the BC Greens who jump up a couple of points, possibly from a drop in EKOS' unusually high "Others" category (3.8% in this poll, 5.5% last time), or maybe its just their unusually high Green numbers coming into effect again. Either way, the result isn't spectacularly different - its still an NDP majority.

There are no regionals because, well, EKOS isn't as nice as AR or Forum are. We do get this funky table at the end though showing how people said they'd vote federally as well, and cross-tabbing that with their provincial voting intentions.

For federal Liberal supporters (all 175 of them in this poll), they split almost evenly, with 45.6% supporting the BC Liberals, and 39.3% supporting the provincial NDP. Among federal Conservatives, 49.6% support the BC Liberals while 30.3% support the provincial Conservatives. There is a reason why the Liberals keep trotting out Stockwell Day you know - they want that 30% to come back to their side.

4 comments:

  1. looking at Clarks big promo i couldn't help but think of Norma Desmond's line "All right, Mr. DeMille, I'm ready for my close-up"

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  2. Before I say anything else, my thoughts and prayers to the victims of the Boston bombings.

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  3. About Clark's promo, I thought they picked a bad time to air it. They aired it right when Trudeau was being announced Liberal leader and I bet more people were following that than watching the promo.

    But out of curiosity I have two questions related to those cross tabs between provincial and federal support. Firstly, the 175 federal Liberal supporters made up what percentage of the federal vote according to EKOS? Secondly, what percentage of federal Conservatives said they would vote NDP provincially. Given past and projected results in the Interior of BC provincially, I'd expect that to be a significant number.

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  4. I haven't gotten around to watching the promo at all, I don't know why anyone would.

    The vote intentions federally are similar to what EKOS showed in their last federal poll, and its likely the same sample. Those numbers were 31% NDP, 28% Con, and 23% Liberal. As to the cross-tabs question, the breakdown for federal Conservative supporters is 49% to the BC Libs, 30% to the provincial Cons, and 16% to the NDP. Sadly without regionals, we don't know where that 16% is.

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