Friday, April 12, 2013

Abacus Federal Poll: 33% Con, 27% NDP, 27% Lib

Abacus Data has done something different this week, coming out with a new poll of the federal political climate much sooner than their usual maybe-once-a-month publishing schedule. Its also a poll that apparently attempts to catch up with others like Léger, Ipsos, or Forum, which are showing huge Liberal leaps these days.

Abacus Data (Federal - April 5-6, 2013 - +/- 2.6%)
Conservative: 33% (+1%) - 146 seats (+11 seats)
New Democratic: 27% (-4%) - 94 seats (-26 seats)
Liberal Party: 27% (+3%) - 89 seats (+7 seats)
Bloc Québécois (QC Only): 21% (+2%) - 8 seats (+8 seats)
Green Party: 7% (-1%) - 1 seat (=)

Compared to their last release, there has been major movement for the Liberals, falling somewhat in line with the momentum we've seen for the Grits among other pollsters. Its the highest Abacus has had us since before the May 2011 election! Even so, this is a poor one for the Liberals in the context of recent polling, mostly down to whatever method Abacus uses that gives them Con- and NDP-friendly numbers (they are an online pollster...).

The Conservatives hold leads in Alberta (53%), the Prairies (46%), and Ontario (38%). However, like with other pollsters, Abacus shows them losing the race in British Columbia, falling behind the NDP 32% to 36%.

In Ontario, the NDP actually lead the battle for second with 28% to the Liberal's 27%, though its all within the margin of error. This is the main issue for the Liberals, though, when compared to the other pollsters. In those polls we're in the 30-35% range, and the NDP are back around 25% - that usually gives us an extra boost, but not so in this case.

Quebec is where the interesting race is. The New Democrats lead with a paltry 29%, with the Liberals coming in close at 28% and the Bloc at 21%. In terms of seats, this nets the NDP 39 seats to the Liberal's 23.

Overall its an improvement, but Abacus still sticks out like a sore thumb. I mean, when even Ipsos Reid is showing a Liberal lead over the Conservatives, there's something odd with your methodology man.

But there's more! Abacus has seemingly done this poll in order to ask questions about Justin Trudeau. I won't go into all the results, as you can see them for yourself, but there's one that I find pretty interesting that I'll put up below.

Isn't that interesting! Except among Conservatives, supporters of every party in 2011 have a positive impression of Justin Trudeau. Even among 2011 Bloc voters! It really illustrates how much appeal Justin has across partisan, or even ideological, lines. I suspect if you threw up Joyce Murray's name instead, you wouldn't see this kind of broad appeal.


  1. interesting a while back you said that southwestern Ont. would be the best area for growth for the NDP, you were right? now where do you see the Liberals best hopes are?

    1. That's an easy answer: the GTA, especially the 905 Belt. This is where the Liberal revival will succeed or fail.

    2. I would assume that was a given I am refering to an area where they didn't have a base because for the liberals to succeed they can't reley on Van. Tor. Mnt. if they continue like that they won't over take the NDP and as a result be the party of wasted votes