Thursday, March 7, 2013

ThinkHQ Alberta Poll: 38% Wildrose, 26% PC

ThinkHQ released a new poll for the provincial scene in Alberta, done during February though I believe only put up a couple days ago (well, at least it was on Wikipedia). It shows a massive swing towards the Wildrosers, and a collapse of the Alberta PCs with the ALP and NDP benefiting somewhat from Redford's fall from grace.

ThinkHQ (Alberta Provincial - February 12-16, 2013)
Wildrose Party: 38% (+4%) - 61 seats (+44 seats)
New Democratic: 16% (+6%) - 9 seats (+5 seats)
Alberta Liberal: 13% (+3%) - 9 seats (+4 seats)
Prog. Conservative: 26% (-18%) - 8 seats (-53 seats)
Alberta Party: 3% (+2%)

Changes are from the 2012 election results. In such a result, the PCs wouldn't even end up as Official Opposition, with both the Liberals and NDP winning a seat more than them.

ThinkHQ thankfully breaks down the results into region. In Calgary, the Wildrosers lead with 38% to the PC's 27%, with the Liberals sitting at 15% and the NDP at 14%. In Edmonton, we see a three-way race with the Wildrosers barely leading at 27% to the NDP's 26%, the PC's 24%, and 18% for the Liberals.

Out in the Rest of Alberta, the Wildrosers lead in the "Small Cities" (i.e., Lethbridge, Red Deer, etc.) with 38% to the PC's 27%, the NDP sitting at 13% - a good result for them. The Liberals tie with "Other Parties" at 10% each. In Rural Alberta, there's no contest - the Wildrosers lead with 61% to the PC's 24%.

The big question, of course, is whether we can trust this poll. Don't worry, Kinsella and BCL - it isn't a Forum poll. But, ThinkHQ was also equally as guilty of messing up in 2012 as other pollsters. Are they repeating the same mistakes, or is there a serious backlash forming against the PCs - again?

The evidence for the latter is strong. Redford's government has lurched from one disaster to another recently. Today, they're bringing down a budget that is widely expected to be less-than-impressive. Albertans gave a new lease on life to the PCs under Redford's leadership, but its clear that they haven't done all that well with said chance. Why wouldn't they rush to the next best (in their minds) option?

Anyways, here's a map, 'cause why not.


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